| Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? |
Yes |
269 |
0.780 |
$209.88 |
$163.47 |
+352.2% |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31? |
No |
190 |
0.900 |
$171.28 |
$31.28 |
+22.3% |
| Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? |
No |
180 |
0.940 |
$169.29 |
$19.29 |
+12.9% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
184 |
0.845 |
$155.61 |
$35.61 |
+29.7% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? |
No |
166 |
0.923 |
$152.82 |
$2.82 |
+1.9% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? |
No |
171 |
0.825 |
$140.99 |
$21.79 |
+18.3% |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
No |
138 |
0.977 |
$134.72 |
$14.72 |
+12.3% |
| Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? |
No |
228 |
0.570 |
$129.89 |
$-35.21 |
-21.3% |
| Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? |
No |
113 |
0.905 |
$102.34 |
$2.34 |
+2.3% |
| Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? |
No |
110 |
0.920 |
$101.10 |
$1.10 |
+1.1% |
| Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.885 |
$88.49 |
$3.50 |
+4.1% |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31? |
No |
95 |
0.925 |
$88.10 |
$8.10 |
+10.1% |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? |
No |
87 |
0.955 |
$83.44 |
$3.19 |
+4.0% |
| Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
115 |
0.715 |
$82.13 |
$-17.87 |
-17.9% |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? |
No |
75 |
0.895 |
$67.56 |
$7.55 |
+12.6% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? |
Yes |
83 |
0.745 |
$61.91 |
$29.07 |
+88.5% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? |
No |
60 |
0.962 |
$57.69 |
$15.69 |
+37.4% |
| Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
No |
64 |
0.895 |
$57.37 |
$32.37 |
+129.5% |
| Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? |
No |
63 |
0.905 |
$56.78 |
$19.78 |
+53.4% |
| Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
69 |
0.815 |
$56.28 |
$6.28 |
+12.6% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
66 |
0.855 |
$56.25 |
$6.25 |
+12.5% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? |
No |
59 |
0.925 |
$54.41 |
$4.41 |
+8.8% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
60 |
0.895 |
$53.27 |
$3.27 |
+6.5% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? |
No |
55 |
0.963 |
$52.60 |
$2.60 |
+5.2% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? |
No |
55 |
0.950 |
$52.17 |
$2.17 |
+4.3% |