PnL (30d)

+$418

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$12

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+68.2%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

67%

6W / 3L · 83 open

Win Return (30d)

23%

21W / 71L

Trades (30d)

92

across 9 markets · ~10 per market

EV / position

+$104.59

avg win $423 · loss $2

Profit Factor

88.70

$423 won / $5 lost

Reward / Risk

266.11

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	65.2% 15W/8L	23	$2,328
🏛 Politics	—	1	$1

Open positions

21 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	330	0.845	$278.85	$85.15	+44.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	700	0.305	$213.50	$11.50	+5.7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	300	0.615	$184.50	$19.50	+11.8%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	200	0.775	$155.00	$53.00	+52.0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	300	0.515	$154.50	$24.50	+18.8%
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	No	150	0.925	$138.75	$12.25	+9.7%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	200	0.545	$109.00	$7.00	+6.9%
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	1,056	0.100	$105.61	$-187.38	-64.0%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	222	0.440	$97.50	$64.38	+194.3%
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	100	0.845	$84.50	$21.50	+34.1%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	Yes	100	0.825	$82.50	$41.50	+101.2%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	Yes	100	0.690	$68.99	$33.99	+97.1%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?	No	100	0.440	$44.00	$3.00	+7.3%
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	6,034	0.006	$39.22	$-116.03	-74.7%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	100	0.365	$36.50	$4.50	+14.1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	100	0.315	$31.50	$-9.50	-23.2%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	334	0.070	$23.24	$-26.99	-53.7%
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	57	0.260	$14.79	$14.79	+0.0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	100	0.075	$7.50	$-5.50	-42.3%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	Yes	50	0.135	$6.75	$-6.75	-50.0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	397	0.015	$6.15	$-11.75	-65.7%