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Trader leaderboard/DumbOracle

DumbOracle

0xa9ecc654e83991dce406032bc504ab78ae2c57d5
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$95
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$55
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+0.9%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
90%
9W / 1L · 157 open
Win Return (30d)
56%
94W / 73L
Trades (30d)
167
across 30 markets · ~6 per market
EV / position
+$15.79
avg win $19 · loss $0
Profit Factor
463.31
$95 won / $0 lost
Reward / Risk
92.66
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $250 · all-time $257,129

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 78.9% 15W/4L 42 $26,015
🏛 Politics 100.0% 3W/0L 15 $6,758

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

42 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 4,016 0.925 $3,714.61 $175.48 +5.0%
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? No 2,661 0.810 $2,155.33 $-35.56 -1.6%
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? No 1,635 0.940 $1,536.65 $52.40 +3.5%
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? No 1,800 0.770 $1,385.99 $-7.99 -0.6%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? No 1,280 0.925 $1,183.59 $60.46 +5.4%
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? No 900 0.975 $877.05 $17.55 +2.0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 888 0.910 $807.64 $33.37 +4.3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? No 700 0.855 $598.50 $38.50 +6.9%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No 642 0.920 $590.88 $79.99 +15.7%
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026? No 600 0.975 $584.70 $15.20 +2.7%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? No 600 0.815 $488.94 $0.44 +0.1%
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 300 0.925 $277.50 $4.50 +1.6%
Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026? No 275 0.945 $259.88 $7.63 +3.0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 300 0.852 $255.60 $3.60 +1.4%
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 300 0.845 $253.50 $28.50 +12.7%
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? No 300 0.815 $244.48 $-19.53 -7.4%
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? No 400 0.585 $234.02 $-20.00 -7.9%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? No 200 0.925 $185.00 $7.00 +3.9%
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026? No 223 0.815 $182.05 $6.42 +3.7%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026? No 122 0.940 $115.02 $11.01 +10.6%
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31? No 107 0.987 $105.81 $6.60 +6.6%
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31? No 108 0.900 $96.94 $13.77 +16.6%
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026? No 100 0.940 $94.00 $1.00 +1.1%
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026? No 150 0.625 $93.75 $-5.75 -5.8%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 200 0.455 $90.99 $-18.50 -16.9%