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Trader leaderboard/Tenebrus7

Tenebrus7

0xa8c63f775ddbbe66b56614191747def3021444e8
PnL (30d)
+$1,670
last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$13,839
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+0.1%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
70%
2,912W / 1,254L · 8,343 open
Win Return (30d)
60%
7,477W / 4,965L · 67 open
Trades (30d)
12,509
across 374 markets · ~33 per market
EV / position
+$11.52
avg win $246 · loss $626
Profit Factor
1.07
$26,101 won / $24,431 lost
Reward / Risk
0.39
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$2,658
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $947,668 · all-time $73,666,392

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 69.9% 2,912W/1,254L 374 $2,531,630
🏛 Politics 98.7% 148W/2L 67 $374,653
💵 Economy 96.3% 78W/3L 25 $179,313
₿ Crypto 57.1% 4W/3L 8 $32,563
🎬 Culture 71.4% 5W/2L 6 $5,503
🤖 Tech 5 $1,198
🔬 Science 3 $9,735
⚽ Sports 2 $3,894
🌤 Weather 2 $8,607

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 14,723 0.949 $13,972.04 $676.43 +5.1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 15,726 0.835 $13,130.83 $507.46 +4.0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 14,272 0.735 $10,489.62 $462.73 +4.6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 10,866 0.945 $10,267.97 $238.30 +2.4%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 10,000 0.997 $9,970.00 $10.00 +0.1%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 9,260 0.925 $8,565.39 $232.58 +2.8%
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? No 10,850 0.715 $7,757.97 $325.17 +4.4%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? No 7,932 0.964 $7,642.36 $872.89 +12.9%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 8,578 0.886 $7,604.04 $96.17 +1.3%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 10,813 0.655 $7,082.58 $277.40 +4.1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 7,389 0.945 $6,982.22 $709.82 +11.3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 13,739 0.465 $6,388.49 $-1,117.48 -14.9%
Trump out as President before 2027? No 5,847 0.935 $5,467.20 $86.19 +1.6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? No 5,188 0.988 $5,123.14 $406.85 +8.6%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 9,771 0.515 $5,032.15 $498.54 +11.0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 5,504 0.830 $4,568.22 $1,238.17 +37.2%
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 5,322 0.835 $4,444.06 $8.12 +0.2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 4,000 0.984 $3,934.00 $4.00 +0.1%
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? Yes 5,128 0.705 $3,615.21 $599.30 +19.9%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 3,759 0.956 $3,593.68 $504.58 +16.3%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 3,733 0.957 $3,572.08 $44.72 +1.3%
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? No 3,592 0.919 $3,300.77 $585.73 +21.6%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 3,203 0.968 $3,099.28 $293.29 +10.5%
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? No 3,060 0.979 $2,995.75 $33.72 +1.1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No 3,000 0.925 $2,775.00 $45.01 +1.6%