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Trader leaderboard/Elias.Thornwell

Elias.Thornwell

0xa66790e2b0075e73c3781ddaf1d0b875a3aaceb3
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$2
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$58
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+0.0%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
87%
134W / 20L · 162 open
Win Return (30d)
61%
187W / 119L · 10 open
Trades (30d)
316
across 153 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
+$0.01
avg win $1 · loss $6
Profit Factor
1.02
$87 won / $86 lost
Reward / Risk
0.15
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $159,979 · all-time $5,982,579

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 68.6% 3,131W/1,433L 3887 $472,574
🏛 Politics 49.6% 64W/65L 768 $117,402
💵 Economy 67.8% 40W/19L 349 $35,553
₿ Crypto 72.7% 24W/9L 275 $30,935
⚽ Sports 90.9% 10W/1L 138 $3,354
🎬 Culture 60.0% 18W/12L 132 $13,263
🤖 Tech 88.9% 8W/1L 129 $5,398
🌤 Weather 100.0% 16W/0L 42 $5,261
🔬 Science 100.0% 2W/0L 39 $5,804

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 32,137 0.961 $30,867.82 $337.83 +1.1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 22,588 0.942 $21,267.00 $226.79 +1.1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 15,716 0.945 $14,851.56 $444.12 +3.1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 11,447 0.977 $11,178.06 $283.45 +2.6%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 11,497 0.963 $11,065.97 $533.10 +5.1%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 11,306 0.954 $10,780.39 $94.58 +0.9%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 11,292 0.925 $10,444.70 $466.93 +4.7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 11,736 0.835 $9,799.76 $591.89 +6.4%
Trump out as President before 2027? No 10,288 0.935 $9,619.32 $226.66 +2.4%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 9,322 0.962 $8,962.83 $319.05 +3.7%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 6,155 0.935 $5,755.27 $598.30 +11.6%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 6,060 0.915 $5,545.29 $59.39 +1.1%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? No 5,464 0.976 $5,329.87 $165.12 +3.2%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 5,177 0.886 $4,589.76 $1,466.25 +46.9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? No 5,469 0.835 $4,566.77 $-391.83 -7.9%
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 4,487 0.948 $4,253.96 $48.44 +1.2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? No 4,610 0.915 $4,217.96 $165.35 +4.1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 4,199 0.924 $3,882.10 $-59.79 -1.5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 3,965 0.972 $3,851.63 $59.95 +1.6%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 4,147 0.920 $3,814.88 $331.79 +9.5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? No 3,882 0.969 $3,759.30 $-18.57 -0.5%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 4,057 0.925 $3,752.54 $-26.82 -0.7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 3,792 0.982 $3,721.42 $116.69 +3.2%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 3,815 0.875 $3,337.98 $54.55 +1.7%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 3,386 0.927 $3,140.69 $-12.33 -0.4%