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Trader leaderboard/Elias.Thornwell

Elias.Thornwell

0xa66790e2b0075e73c3781ddaf1d0b875a3aaceb3
PnL (30d)
−$3,126
last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$823
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-0.8%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
69%
3,119W / 1,432L · 9,046 open
Win Return (30d)
54%
7,220W / 6,122L · 255 open
Trades (30d)
13,597
across 3,887 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
−$1.84
avg win $7 · loss $23
Profit Factor
0.72
$7,968 won / $11,094 lost
Reward / Risk
0.28
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$1,311
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $159,554 · all-time $5,982,154

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 68.5% 3,119W/1,432L 3887 $472,574
🏛 Politics 48.6% 71W/75L 790 $120,678
💵 Economy 67.1% 57W/28L 360 $38,057
₿ Crypto 82.9% 34W/7L 280 $31,898
🎬 Culture 61.0% 25W/16L 141 $13,455
⚽ Sports 91.7% 11W/1L 141 $3,451
🤖 Tech 90.9% 10W/1L 132 $5,515
🌤 Weather 100.0% 16W/0L 43 $5,312
🔬 Science 100.0% 2W/0L 41 $5,856

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 32,137 0.961 $30,867.82 $337.83 +1.1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 22,588 0.942 $21,267.00 $226.79 +1.1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 15,716 0.945 $14,851.56 $444.12 +3.1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 11,447 0.976 $11,166.61 $272.00 +2.5%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 11,497 0.963 $11,065.97 $533.10 +5.1%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 11,306 0.958 $10,825.62 $139.80 +1.3%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 11,292 0.925 $10,444.70 $466.93 +4.7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 11,736 0.845 $9,917.13 $709.26 +7.7%
Trump out as President before 2027? No 10,288 0.935 $9,619.32 $226.66 +2.4%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 9,322 0.963 $8,972.15 $328.38 +3.8%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 6,155 0.935 $5,755.27 $598.30 +11.6%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 6,060 0.915 $5,545.29 $59.39 +1.1%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? No 5,464 0.975 $5,324.40 $159.66 +3.1%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 5,177 0.886 $4,589.76 $1,466.25 +46.9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? No 5,469 0.835 $4,566.77 $-391.83 -7.9%
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 4,487 0.952 $4,269.66 $64.14 +1.5%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? No 4,610 0.915 $4,217.96 $165.35 +4.1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 4,199 0.927 $3,892.59 $-49.29 -1.3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 3,965 0.963 $3,815.95 $24.27 +0.6%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 4,147 0.920 $3,814.88 $331.79 +9.5%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 4,057 0.925 $3,752.54 $-26.82 -0.7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? No 3,882 0.965 $3,743.77 $-34.10 -0.9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 3,792 0.981 $3,717.63 $112.89 +3.1%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 3,815 0.875 $3,337.98 $54.55 +1.7%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 3,386 0.927 $3,140.69 $-12.33 -0.4%