| Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
5,200 |
0.895 |
$4,653.97 |
$-22.68 |
-0.5% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
1,352 |
0.685 |
$925.95 |
$-45.61 |
-4.7% |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
10,000 |
0.085 |
$850.00 |
$-250.00 |
-22.7% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
8,600 |
0.075 |
$644.99 |
$-444.99 |
-40.8% |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? |
No |
200 |
0.981 |
$196.10 |
$49.10 |
+33.4% |
| US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.915 |
$183.00 |
$17.00 |
+10.2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
400 |
0.385 |
$154.00 |
$6.00 |
+4.1% |
| Israeli election results in a hung parliament? |
Yes |
388 |
0.350 |
$135.92 |
$26.50 |
+24.2% |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
314 |
0.365 |
$114.60 |
$6.39 |
+5.9% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
No |
179 |
0.635 |
$113.39 |
$13.39 |
+13.4% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? |
No |
115 |
0.962 |
$110.52 |
$10.52 |
+10.5% |
| Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? |
No |
146 |
0.735 |
$107.14 |
$7.14 |
+7.1% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
100 |
0.987 |
$98.65 |
$2.45 |
+2.5% |
| Will Israel election happen as scheduled? |
Yes |
100 |
0.955 |
$95.50 |
$4.50 |
+4.9% |
| Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? |
No |
110 |
0.740 |
$81.39 |
$-2.20 |
-2.6% |
| Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026? |
Up |
100 |
0.675 |
$67.50 |
$-17.50 |
-20.6% |
| Will Clavicular kiss the Western Wall in 2026? |
No |
50 |
0.976 |
$48.77 |
$1.27 |
+2.7% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
604 |
0.080 |
$48.32 |
$-51.68 |
-51.7% |
| Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? |
Yes |
100 |
0.430 |
$43.00 |
$7.00 |
+19.4% |
| Will Trump endorse Likud in the 2026 Israeli Election? |
Yes |
50 |
0.665 |
$33.25 |
$22.75 |
+216.7% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
190 |
0.165 |
$31.28 |
$-28.72 |
-47.9% |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? |
No |
34 |
0.880 |
$30.00 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
120 |
0.240 |
$28.80 |
$-25.60 |
-47.1% |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? |
Yes |
289 |
0.096 |
$27.77 |
$-55.23 |
-66.5% |
| Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by December 31? |
Yes |
100 |
0.195 |
$19.50 |
$-20.50 |
-51.2% |