PnL (30d)

−$824

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$199

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-7.1%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

47%

55W / 63L · 171 open

Win Return (30d)

39%

113W / 176L

Trades (30d)

289

across 50 markets · ~6 per market

EV / position

−$31.69

avg win $42 · loss $59

Profit Factor

0.26

$296 won / $1,120 lost

Reward / Risk

0.72

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$13

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	46.6% 55W/63L	50	$16,853
🏛 Politics	—	3	$251
🤖 Tech	—	1	$88

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

35 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	5,200	0.910	$4,731.97	$55.32	+1.2%
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	1,352	0.680	$919.20	$-52.36	-5.4%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Yes	10,000	0.085	$850.00	$-250.00	-22.7%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	8,600	0.075	$644.99	$-444.99	-40.8%
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?	No	200	0.988	$197.50	$50.50	+34.4%
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?	No	200	0.915	$183.00	$17.00	+10.2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	400	0.375	$150.00	$2.00	+1.4%
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	388	0.350	$135.92	$26.50	+24.2%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	179	0.645	$115.18	$15.18	+15.2%
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Yes	314	0.355	$111.46	$3.25	+3.0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?	No	115	0.962	$110.52	$10.52	+10.5%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	No	146	0.730	$106.41	$6.41	+6.4%
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	100	0.987	$98.65	$2.45	+2.5%
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Yes	100	0.955	$95.50	$4.50	+4.9%
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?	No	110	0.740	$81.39	$-2.20	-2.6%
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?	Up	100	0.655	$65.50	$-19.50	-22.9%
Will Clavicular kiss the Western Wall in 2026?	No	50	0.976	$48.77	$1.27	+2.7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	Yes	604	0.080	$48.32	$-51.68	-51.7%
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	Yes	100	0.430	$43.00	$7.00	+19.4%
Will Trump endorse Likud in the 2026 Israeli Election?	Yes	50	0.665	$33.25	$22.75	+216.7%
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	34	0.880	$30.00	$0.00	+0.0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	190	0.155	$29.39	$-30.61	-51.0%
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	120	0.240	$28.80	$-25.60	-47.1%
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	Yes	289	0.096	$27.77	$-55.23	-66.5%
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by December 31?	Yes	100	0.195	$19.50	$-20.50	-51.2%