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Trader leaderboard/387411007415611814092217897387

387411007415611814092217897387

0xa49b6ea0a604c581f2a9569db42c192b1c487054
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$1,090
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$410
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-6.1%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
36%
1,678W / 3,042L · 506 open
Win Return (30d)
36%
1,888W / 3,335L · 3 open
Trades (30d)
5,226
across 192 markets · ~27 per market
EV / position
−$7.27
avg win $57 · loss $41
Profit Factor
0.73
$2,930 won / $4,021 lost
Reward / Risk
1.41
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$861
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $162,825 · all-time $21,510,260

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 45.3% 15,289W/18,439L 4508 $243,708
🌤 Weather 44.7% 727W/901L 345 $8,771
🏛 Politics 29.4% 269W/645L 64 $8,370
💵 Economy 62 $3,137
🎬 Culture 30.0% 277W/645L 61 $8,309
₿ Crypto 0.0% 0W/1L 42 $1,743
🤖 Tech 27 $2,390
🔬 Science 1 $16

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

51 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 48,034 0.595 $28,580.23 $4,563.23 +19.0%
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 48,034 0.405 $19,453.77 $-4,563.23 -19.0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 9,481 0.189 $1,787.16 $307.86 +20.8%
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? No 1,637 0.835 $1,367.19 $22.44 +1.7%
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027? No 991 0.908 $900.71 $147.51 +19.6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 1,414 0.615 $869.34 $116.54 +15.5%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 3,836 0.165 $632.87 $94.73 +17.6%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026? No 616 0.983 $605.41 $121.41 +25.1%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in July 2026? No 559 0.995 $555.49 $10.15 +1.9%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes 553 0.890 $492.39 $-8.98 -1.8%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Yes 1,077 0.450 $484.67 $-129.47 -21.1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? Yes 2,319 0.186 $431.42 $203.97 +89.7%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 469 0.835 $391.33 $148.71 +61.3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? Yes 699 0.455 $318.13 $196.10 +160.7%
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.4%? No 317 0.963 $305.00 $5.38 +1.8%
Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 6.0% and 7.0%? No 263 0.996 $262.03 $46.05 +21.3%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026? No 1,939 0.115 $222.99 $-736.72 -76.8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Yes 267 0.835 $222.72 $5.49 +2.5%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in August 2026? No 225 0.935 $210.37 $23.73 +12.7%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Yes 416 0.475 $197.60 $-3.16 -1.6%
Will July 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? No 194 0.997 $193.42 $1.42 +0.7%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Yes 3,512 0.046 $163.29 $-41.66 -20.3%
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 205 0.795 $163.01 $37.88 +30.3%
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 545 0.285 $155.23 $-138.89 -47.2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 5? Yes 151 1.000 $151.07 $143.25 +1831.6%