PnL (30d)

+$888

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$179

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+15.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

58%

53W / 38L · 16 open

Win Return (30d)

50%

53W / 54L

Trades (30d)

107

across 7 markets · ~15 per market

EV / position

+$147.93

avg win $274 · loss $104

Profit Factor

5.25

$1,096 won / $209 lost

Reward / Risk

2.63

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$147

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	66.0% 157W/81L	42	$34,433
🏛 Politics	26.7% 12W/33L	4	$2,930
🎬 Culture	100.0% 12W/0L	2	$1,589
₿ Crypto	—	1	$150
💵 Economy	—	1	$150

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

11 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	5,385	0.305	$1,642.56	$39.50	+2.5%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	949	0.930	$882.11	$43.02	+5.1%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	1,064	0.541	$576.17	$-225.28	-28.1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	2,559	0.155	$396.69	$-801.50	-66.9%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	981	0.375	$368.04	$-56.45	-13.3%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	529	0.655	$346.21	$-12.61	-3.5%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	1,546	0.195	$301.41	$-290.22	-49.1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	300	0.845	$253.50	$-1.50	-0.6%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?	No	75	0.745	$55.65	$7.32	+15.2%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	300	0.130	$39.00	$-30.00	-43.5%
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?	Yes	200	0.018	$3.50	$-11.50	-76.7%