PnL (30d)

+$2,225

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$1,428

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+11.1%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

66%

157W / 81L · 137 open

Win Return (30d)

45%

168W / 207L

Trades (30d)

375

across 42 markets · ~9 per market

EV / position

+$82.41

avg win $191 · loss $53

Profit Factor

4.51

$2,859 won / $634 lost

Reward / Risk

3.61

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$482

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	66.0% 157W/81L	42	$34,433
🏛 Politics	26.7% 12W/33L	4	$2,930
🎬 Culture	100.0% 12W/0L	2	$1,589
₿ Crypto	—	1	$150
💵 Economy	—	1	$150

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

11 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	5,385	0.305	$1,642.56	$39.50	+2.5%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	949	0.930	$882.11	$43.02	+5.1%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	1,064	0.531	$565.53	$-235.92	-29.4%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	2,559	0.155	$396.69	$-801.50	-66.9%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	981	0.375	$368.04	$-56.45	-13.3%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	529	0.635	$335.64	$-23.19	-6.5%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	1,546	0.215	$332.33	$-259.30	-43.8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	300	0.840	$252.00	$-3.00	-1.2%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?	No	75	0.760	$56.77	$8.44	+17.5%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	300	0.130	$39.00	$-30.00	-43.5%
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?	Yes	200	0.018	$3.50	$-11.50	-76.7%