PnL (30d)

+$481

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$75

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+60.9%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

35%

152W / 278L · 32 open

Win Return (30d)

34%

157W / 305L

Trades (30d)

462

across 90 markets · ~5 per market

EV / position

+$6.09

avg win $43 · loss $6

Profit Factor

2.40

$824 won / $343 lost

Reward / Risk

7.59

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$93

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	34.1% 355W/686L	295	$7,858
🎬 Culture	22.2% 24W/84L	34	$594
🏛 Politics	22.4% 24W/83L	33	$593
⚽ Sports	0.0% 0W/3L	5	$88

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

23 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	6,204	0.075	$465.30	$-31.01	-6.2%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	5,250	0.041	$212.63	$16.13	+8.2%
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)	Ian Machado Garry	375	0.255	$95.62	$-5.62	-5.6%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	1,500	0.045	$68.25	$1.35	+2.0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	125	0.075	$9.38	$-9.38	-50.0%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	51	0.108	$5.53	$0.43	+8.5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	200	0.018	$3.50	$-14.20	-80.2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	420	0.006	$2.73	$-18.28	-87.0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?	Yes	51	0.030	$1.55	$-4.21	-73.1%
Will "Fuck" or "Fucking" be said 10+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of August 3?	No	8	0.165	$1.32	$-0.12	-8.3%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	500	0.003	$1.25	$-20.88	-94.4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?	Yes	606	0.002	$0.91	$-9.13	-90.9%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	511	0.002	$0.77	$-7.59	-90.8%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	43	0.017	$0.72	$-1.28	-63.8%
Will "Left" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of August 3?	No	15	0.045	$0.67	$-0.37	-35.7%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	250	0.003	$0.62	$-1.62	-72.2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?	Yes	1,059	0.001	$0.53	$-1.47	-73.5%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	125	0.004	$0.44	$-0.56	-56.2%
Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	5	0.075	$0.38	$0.22	+135.9%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	250	0.002	$0.38	$-1.12	-75.0%
Will Elon Musk post 760-779 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	5	0.069	$0.34	$0.19	+128.3%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	400	0.001	$0.20	$-2.20	-91.7%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	200	0.001	$0.10	$-3.10	-96.9%