PnL (30d)

−$50,763

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$10,395

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-3.1%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

55%

390W / 321L · 490 open

Win Return (30d)

65%

776W / 425L

Trades (30d)

1,201

across 35 markets · ~34 per market

EV / position

−$2,671.72

avg win $818 · loss $10,232

Profit Factor

0.17

$10,632 won / $61,395 lost

Reward / Risk

0.08

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$128

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	54.9% 390W/321L	35	$2,314,927
🏛 Politics	94.7% 18W/1L	8	$185,302
💵 Economy	94.7% 18W/1L	4	$94,946

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

19 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	No	105,270	0.965	$101,533.23	$-544.88	-0.5%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	105,891	0.790	$83,706.54	$30,761.23	+58.1%
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	57,108	0.987	$56,336.74	$4,076.75	+7.8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	55,690	0.845	$47,058.24	$4,051.35	+9.4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	47,703	0.835	$39,832.14	$-2,196.16	-5.2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	41,148	0.675	$27,774.81	$1,360.88	+5.2%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	105,891	0.209	$22,184.09	$-30,761.23	-58.1%
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	21,322	0.951	$20,276.90	$1,727.05	+9.3%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	19,135	0.998	$19,087.07	$28.70	+0.2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	30,000	0.625	$18,750.00	$-4,983.30	-21.0%
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	No	16,532	0.987	$16,308.83	$902.90	+5.9%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	13,840	0.935	$12,940.09	$484.39	+3.9%
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	12,533	0.997	$12,488.72	$539.54	+4.5%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	8,486	0.920	$7,807.49	$848.67	+12.2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	No	6,203	0.981	$6,082.42	$458.38	+8.2%
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	4,556	0.875	$3,986.82	$22.78	+0.6%
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	3,117	0.958	$2,984.59	$272.74	+10.1%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Yes	387	0.625	$241.85	$-94.81	-28.2%
Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	422	0.348	$146.91	$-248.83	-62.9%