| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
62,964 |
1.000 |
$62,932.31 |
$160.05 |
+0.3% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
No |
7,937 |
0.987 |
$7,829.53 |
$234.14 |
+3.1% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
No |
4,518 |
1.000 |
$4,516.03 |
$608.34 |
+15.6% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
4,000 |
0.845 |
$3,380.00 |
$20.00 |
+0.6% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
3,000 |
0.980 |
$2,940.00 |
$234.00 |
+8.6% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
2,993 |
0.905 |
$2,708.95 |
$164.63 |
+6.5% |
| Will Haley Stevens win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? |
Yes |
1,994 |
0.982 |
$1,957.64 |
$145.60 |
+8.0% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
2,715 |
0.715 |
$1,941.45 |
$570.73 |
+41.6% |
| Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
Yes |
1,663 |
1.000 |
$1,662.38 |
$170.49 |
+11.4% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
4,604 |
0.353 |
$1,627.59 |
$240.94 |
+17.4% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
2,300 |
0.665 |
$1,529.49 |
$-172.50 |
-10.1% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? |
Yes |
1,857 |
0.645 |
$1,197.91 |
$-63.01 |
-5.0% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026? |
No |
1,192 |
0.907 |
$1,080.83 |
$32.79 |
+3.1% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
1,740 |
0.427 |
$743.88 |
$-180.73 |
-19.5% |
| Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? |
No |
702 |
0.580 |
$407.02 |
$151.60 |
+59.4% |
| Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? |
No |
415 |
0.905 |
$375.54 |
$114.09 |
+43.6% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.115 |
$345.01 |
$-1,335.04 |
-79.5% |
| Will Trump nationalize elections? |
No |
272 |
0.895 |
$243.80 |
$73.78 |
+43.4% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
4,234 |
0.045 |
$192.65 |
$47.17 |
+32.4% |
| Will Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? |
Yes |
181 |
0.971 |
$175.78 |
$13.46 |
+8.3% |
| Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31? |
Yes |
408 |
0.370 |
$151.13 |
$-37.25 |
-19.8% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? |
No |
174 |
0.785 |
$136.20 |
$18.13 |
+15.4% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026? |
Yes |
115 |
0.740 |
$84.96 |
$-6.89 |
-7.5% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? |
No |
100 |
0.805 |
$80.42 |
$3.70 |
+4.8% |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? |
Yes |
95 |
0.797 |
$75.92 |
$25.96 |
+52.0% |