| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
60,420 |
0.992 |
$59,906.30 |
$-332.31 |
-0.6% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
No |
7,937 |
0.987 |
$7,833.50 |
$238.11 |
+3.1% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
No |
4,518 |
0.995 |
$4,495.70 |
$588.01 |
+15.0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
4,000 |
0.835 |
$3,340.00 |
$-20.00 |
-0.6% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
3,000 |
0.981 |
$2,941.50 |
$235.50 |
+8.7% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
2,993 |
0.895 |
$2,679.01 |
$134.70 |
+5.3% |
| Will Haley Stevens win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? |
Yes |
1,994 |
0.983 |
$1,958.63 |
$146.59 |
+8.1% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
2,715 |
0.715 |
$1,941.45 |
$570.73 |
+41.6% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
4,604 |
0.356 |
$1,639.10 |
$252.45 |
+18.2% |
| Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
Yes |
1,663 |
0.952 |
$1,582.54 |
$90.66 |
+6.1% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
2,300 |
0.685 |
$1,575.49 |
$-126.50 |
-7.4% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? |
Yes |
1,857 |
0.645 |
$1,197.91 |
$-63.01 |
-5.0% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
1,740 |
0.470 |
$817.83 |
$-106.78 |
-11.5% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026? |
No |
727 |
0.982 |
$713.75 |
$54.63 |
+8.3% |
| Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? |
No |
702 |
0.570 |
$399.93 |
$144.51 |
+56.6% |
| Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? |
No |
415 |
0.905 |
$375.54 |
$114.09 |
+43.6% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.115 |
$345.01 |
$-1,335.04 |
-79.5% |
| Will Trump nationalize elections? |
No |
272 |
0.895 |
$243.80 |
$73.78 |
+43.4% |
| Will Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? |
Yes |
181 |
0.968 |
$175.24 |
$12.91 |
+8.0% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
4,234 |
0.038 |
$163.01 |
$17.53 |
+12.1% |
| Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31? |
Yes |
408 |
0.375 |
$153.17 |
$-35.21 |
-18.7% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? |
No |
174 |
0.790 |
$137.06 |
$19.00 |
+16.1% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? |
No |
100 |
0.805 |
$80.42 |
$3.70 |
+4.8% |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? |
Yes |
95 |
0.800 |
$76.16 |
$26.20 |
+52.4% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
60 |
0.850 |
$51.03 |
$3.96 |
+8.4% |