PnL (30d)

+$182

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$291

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+1.0%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

52%

75W / 69L · 111 open

Win Return (30d)

37%

95W / 160L

Trades (30d)

255

across 19 markets · ~13 per market

EV / position

+$20.27

avg win $380 · loss $268

Profit Factor

1.14

$1,520 won / $1,338 lost

Reward / Risk

1.42

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	30.6% 205W/466L	93	$115,918
🏛 Politics	—	4	$6,256
₿ Crypto	—	1	$15
💵 Economy	—	1	$15

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

11 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Iran leadership change by August 31?	Yes	12,689	0.024	$298.19	$6.18	+2.1%
Iran leadership change by September 30?	Yes	2,738	0.055	$150.60	$-24.40	-13.9%
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?	Yes	2,471	0.060	$148.24	$-169.26	-53.3%
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?	Yes	2,000	0.060	$120.00	$-69.99	-36.8%
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?	Yes	3,800	0.021	$81.32	$-9.67	-10.6%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	769	0.105	$80.77	$-19.23	-19.2%
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?	Yes	1,965	0.025	$49.90	$-34.10	-40.6%
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	499	0.095	$47.45	$-62.43	-56.8%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	No	515	0.050	$25.77	$-30.48	-54.2%
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?	Yes	537	0.018	$9.40	$-10.60	-53.0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?	Yes	100	0.029	$2.85	$-12.15	-81.0%