PnL (30d)

−$2,384

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$1,313

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-4.0%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

31%

205W / 466L · 502 open

Win Return (30d)

25%

292W / 875L · 6 open

Trades (30d)

1,173

across 93 markets · ~13 per market

EV / position

−$44.16

avg win $290 · loss $240

Profit Factor

0.71

$5,792 won / $8,177 lost

Reward / Risk

1.20

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$330

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	30.6% 205W/466L	93	$115,918
🏛 Politics	—	4	$6,256
₿ Crypto	—	1	$15
💵 Economy	—	1	$15

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

11 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Iran leadership change by August 31?	Yes	12,689	0.023	$291.85	$-0.16	-0.1%
Iran leadership change by September 30?	Yes	2,738	0.055	$150.60	$-24.40	-13.9%
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?	Yes	2,471	0.060	$148.24	$-169.26	-53.3%
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?	Yes	2,000	0.060	$120.00	$-69.99	-36.8%
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?	Yes	3,800	0.021	$81.32	$-9.67	-10.6%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	769	0.105	$80.77	$-19.23	-19.2%
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	499	0.100	$49.95	$-59.93	-54.5%
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?	Yes	1,965	0.025	$49.90	$-34.10	-40.6%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	No	515	0.055	$28.34	$-27.91	-49.6%
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?	Yes	537	0.018	$9.40	$-10.60	-53.0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?	Yes	100	0.029	$2.90	$-12.10	-80.7%