| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
375,933 |
0.845 |
$317,663.52 |
$11,434.76 |
+3.7% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
321,810 |
0.935 |
$300,892.07 |
$71,822.78 |
+31.4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
154,948 |
0.835 |
$129,381.91 |
$-7,739.67 |
-5.6% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
No |
107,323 |
0.920 |
$98,737.03 |
$12,089.92 |
+14.0% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
94,095 |
0.964 |
$90,707.63 |
$9,467.75 |
+11.7% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? |
No |
90,741 |
0.962 |
$87,292.68 |
$2,690.01 |
+3.2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
89,565 |
0.973 |
$87,102.09 |
$151.81 |
+0.2% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
No |
72,047 |
0.890 |
$64,122.09 |
$15,179.14 |
+31.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
64,916 |
0.625 |
$40,572.28 |
$-4,310.98 |
-9.6% |
| Iran coup attempt by December 31? |
No |
42,877 |
0.895 |
$38,374.78 |
$625.02 |
+1.7% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? |
No |
44,336 |
0.855 |
$37,907.28 |
$4,248.10 |
+12.6% |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? |
No |
30,966 |
0.945 |
$29,262.59 |
$7,202.93 |
+32.7% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
Yes |
44,508 |
0.635 |
$28,262.52 |
$719.51 |
+2.6% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
35,260 |
0.740 |
$26,074.70 |
$-346.46 |
-1.3% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
24,855 |
0.979 |
$24,320.92 |
$604.75 |
+2.5% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
No |
72,205 |
0.335 |
$24,188.64 |
$-14,604.16 |
-37.6% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? |
No |
23,528 |
0.964 |
$22,669.25 |
$1,783.35 |
+8.5% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
21,834 |
0.945 |
$20,632.83 |
$3,291.43 |
+19.0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? |
Yes |
187,340 |
0.095 |
$17,797.34 |
$-18,364.42 |
-50.8% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? |
No |
22,488 |
0.675 |
$15,179.24 |
$667.12 |
+4.6% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
40,150 |
0.345 |
$13,847.90 |
$1,838.33 |
+15.3% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? |
No |
13,418 |
0.989 |
$13,263.83 |
$685.65 |
+5.5% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? |
No |
15,494 |
0.855 |
$13,246.96 |
$1,162.40 |
+9.6% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? |
No |
16,120 |
0.815 |
$13,135.81 |
$930.89 |
+7.6% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
19,571 |
0.645 |
$12,623.48 |
$-16.34 |
-0.1% |