| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
375,933 |
0.835 |
$313,904.19 |
$7,675.43 |
+2.5% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
321,810 |
0.935 |
$300,892.07 |
$71,822.78 |
+31.4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
154,948 |
0.835 |
$129,381.91 |
$-7,739.67 |
-5.6% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
No |
107,323 |
0.930 |
$99,810.26 |
$13,163.15 |
+15.2% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
94,095 |
0.966 |
$90,895.82 |
$9,655.94 |
+11.9% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? |
No |
90,741 |
0.962 |
$87,247.31 |
$2,644.64 |
+3.1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
89,565 |
0.968 |
$86,699.05 |
$-251.23 |
-0.3% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
No |
72,047 |
0.890 |
$64,122.09 |
$15,179.14 |
+31.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
64,916 |
0.615 |
$39,923.13 |
$-4,960.14 |
-11.1% |
| Iran coup attempt by December 31? |
No |
42,877 |
0.895 |
$38,374.78 |
$625.02 |
+1.7% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? |
No |
44,336 |
0.850 |
$37,685.60 |
$4,026.42 |
+12.0% |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? |
No |
30,966 |
0.945 |
$29,262.59 |
$7,202.93 |
+32.7% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
Yes |
44,508 |
0.625 |
$27,817.44 |
$274.44 |
+1.0% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
35,260 |
0.742 |
$26,145.22 |
$-275.94 |
-1.0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
24,855 |
0.981 |
$24,370.63 |
$654.47 |
+2.8% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
No |
72,205 |
0.315 |
$22,744.54 |
$-16,048.26 |
-41.4% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? |
No |
23,528 |
0.964 |
$22,669.25 |
$1,783.35 |
+8.5% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
21,834 |
0.940 |
$20,523.66 |
$3,182.26 |
+18.4% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? |
Yes |
187,340 |
0.095 |
$17,797.34 |
$-18,364.42 |
-50.8% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? |
No |
22,488 |
0.675 |
$15,179.24 |
$667.12 |
+4.6% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
40,150 |
0.365 |
$14,654.92 |
$2,645.35 |
+22.0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? |
No |
13,418 |
0.988 |
$13,257.12 |
$678.94 |
+5.4% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? |
No |
15,494 |
0.855 |
$13,246.96 |
$1,162.40 |
+9.6% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? |
No |
16,120 |
0.810 |
$13,056.83 |
$851.90 |
+7.0% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
19,571 |
0.645 |
$12,623.48 |
$-16.34 |
-0.1% |