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Trader leaderboard/CarolBeer

CarolBeer

0x8fce065d5820ea3deb72976640290959bb952566
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$222
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$175
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+6.6%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
38%
3W / 5L · 112 open
Win Return (30d)
34%
41W / 79L
Trades (30d)
120
across 32 markets · ~4 per market
EV / position
+$73.93
avg win $129 · loss $37
Profit Factor
7.02
$259 won / $37 lost
Reward / Risk
3.51
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$37
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $9,336 · all-time $677,706

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 42.8% 59W/79L 79 $15,539
🏛 Politics 37.5% 3W/5L 21 $3,153
💵 Economy 0.0% 0W/5L 11 $1,419
₿ Crypto 4 $421
🎬 Culture 1 $202

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

29 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 900 0.790 $711.45 $261.45 +58.1%
Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026? No 900 0.765 $688.47 $76.69 +12.5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 400 0.885 $354.00 $16.40 +4.9%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 400 0.845 $338.03 $54.30 +19.1%
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No 400 0.845 $338.01 $101.00 +42.6%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 400 0.823 $329.01 $261.66 +388.5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 400 0.675 $270.00 $22.00 +8.9%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 300 0.645 $193.50 $28.50 +17.3%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 300 0.635 $190.50 $7.50 +4.1%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 900 0.209 $188.55 $-261.45 -58.1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? No 200 0.890 $178.00 $78.00 +78.0%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? Yes 200 0.795 $159.00 $100.70 +172.7%
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? No 400 0.396 $158.14 $22.70 +16.8%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 300 0.515 $154.50 $37.50 +32.1%
US recession by end of 2026? No 150 0.905 $135.76 $20.24 +17.5%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1,000 0.135 $134.49 $88.03 +189.5%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No 150 0.885 $132.72 $32.86 +32.9%
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? No 300 0.435 $130.50 $-1.27 -1.0%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 150 0.865 $129.75 $3.75 +3.0%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 200 0.560 $111.98 $-2.15 -1.9%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 400 0.255 $102.00 $-2.00 -1.9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August? Yes 154 0.650 $100.18 $7.71 +8.3%
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 200 0.415 $83.00 $-9.69 -10.5%
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? Yes 300 0.200 $60.00 $-3.00 -4.8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August? No 120 0.405 $48.60 $5.40 +12.5%