| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
5,510 |
0.845 |
$4,655.93 |
$376.94 |
+8.8% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
4,700 |
0.935 |
$4,394.49 |
$176.51 |
+4.2% |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? |
No |
3,500 |
0.915 |
$3,202.50 |
$103.51 |
+3.3% |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? |
No |
1,400 |
0.875 |
$1,225.00 |
$-25.37 |
-2.0% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
1,500 |
0.805 |
$1,207.49 |
$397.50 |
+49.1% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
1,200 |
0.853 |
$1,022.99 |
$151.00 |
+17.3% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
No |
1,000 |
0.987 |
$986.50 |
$5.75 |
+0.6% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
1,000 |
0.855 |
$855.00 |
$115.00 |
+15.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
1,028 |
0.795 |
$817.32 |
$267.25 |
+48.6% |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? |
No |
700 |
0.975 |
$682.48 |
$95.50 |
+16.3% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? |
No |
600 |
0.986 |
$591.30 |
$1.50 |
+0.3% |
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? |
Yes |
1,891 |
0.275 |
$520.08 |
$87.49 |
+20.2% |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? |
No |
582 |
0.860 |
$500.12 |
$26.48 |
+5.6% |
| Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
Yes |
500 |
0.979 |
$489.25 |
$68.25 |
+16.2% |
| Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026? |
No |
500 |
0.975 |
$487.26 |
$-1.75 |
-0.4% |
| NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors? |
No |
500 |
0.969 |
$484.25 |
$17.55 |
+3.8% |
| Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? |
No |
500 |
0.935 |
$467.50 |
$7.50 |
+1.6% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? |
No |
445 |
0.962 |
$427.83 |
$35.57 |
+9.1% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
400 |
0.987 |
$394.60 |
$6.20 |
+1.6% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? |
No |
400 |
0.950 |
$380.00 |
$4.00 |
+1.1% |
| Iran leadership change by September 30? |
No |
400 |
0.945 |
$378.00 |
$26.00 |
+7.4% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
400 |
0.930 |
$372.20 |
$1.80 |
+0.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
400 |
0.895 |
$358.00 |
$102.00 |
+39.8% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
Yes |
550 |
0.635 |
$349.24 |
$-96.25 |
-21.6% |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? |
Yes |
2,500 |
0.135 |
$337.50 |
$-420.12 |
-55.5% |