| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
5,510 |
0.845 |
$4,655.93 |
$376.94 |
+8.8% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
4,700 |
0.935 |
$4,394.49 |
$176.51 |
+4.2% |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? |
No |
3,500 |
0.915 |
$3,202.50 |
$103.51 |
+3.3% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
1,500 |
0.845 |
$1,267.49 |
$457.50 |
+56.5% |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? |
No |
1,394 |
0.875 |
$1,219.89 |
$-25.27 |
-2.0% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
1,200 |
0.852 |
$1,021.79 |
$149.80 |
+17.2% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
No |
1,000 |
0.987 |
$986.50 |
$5.75 |
+0.6% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
1,000 |
0.855 |
$855.00 |
$115.00 |
+15.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
1,028 |
0.815 |
$837.78 |
$287.70 |
+52.3% |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? |
No |
700 |
0.978 |
$684.23 |
$97.25 |
+16.6% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? |
No |
600 |
0.985 |
$590.70 |
$0.90 |
+0.2% |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? |
No |
582 |
0.868 |
$504.48 |
$30.84 |
+6.5% |
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? |
Yes |
1,891 |
0.265 |
$501.17 |
$68.58 |
+15.9% |
| Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
Yes |
500 |
1.000 |
$499.75 |
$78.75 |
+18.7% |
| Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026? |
No |
500 |
0.980 |
$489.76 |
$0.75 |
+0.2% |
| NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors? |
No |
500 |
0.966 |
$482.75 |
$16.05 |
+3.4% |
| Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? |
No |
500 |
0.935 |
$467.50 |
$7.50 |
+1.6% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? |
No |
445 |
0.962 |
$427.83 |
$35.57 |
+9.1% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
400 |
0.987 |
$394.60 |
$6.20 |
+1.6% |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? |
Yes |
2,500 |
0.155 |
$387.50 |
$-370.12 |
-48.9% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? |
No |
400 |
0.945 |
$378.00 |
$2.00 |
+0.5% |
| Iran leadership change by September 30? |
No |
400 |
0.945 |
$378.00 |
$26.00 |
+7.4% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
400 |
0.930 |
$372.20 |
$1.80 |
+0.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
400 |
0.910 |
$364.00 |
$108.00 |
+42.2% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
No |
400 |
0.830 |
$331.98 |
$51.00 |
+18.1% |