| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
237 |
0.940 |
$222.51 |
$7.87 |
+3.7% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
71 |
0.785 |
$55.72 |
$5.32 |
+10.6% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? |
Yes |
150 |
0.325 |
$48.75 |
$-0.75 |
-1.5% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? |
No |
68 |
0.490 |
$33.20 |
$0.35 |
+1.1% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? |
Yes |
476 |
0.048 |
$22.62 |
$-2.62 |
-10.4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
25 |
0.615 |
$15.38 |
$0.62 |
+4.2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
Yes |
35 |
0.305 |
$10.67 |
$2.32 |
+27.8% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
25 |
0.276 |
$6.89 |
$-0.66 |
-8.7% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
No |
7 |
0.940 |
$6.19 |
$0.40 |
+6.8% |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? |
Yes |
10 |
0.570 |
$5.70 |
$-1.40 |
-19.7% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027? |
Yes |
149 |
0.025 |
$3.78 |
$2.51 |
+197.1% |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? |
Yes |
17 |
0.135 |
$2.29 |
$-0.25 |
-10.0% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027? |
Yes |
100 |
0.016 |
$1.60 |
$-1.16 |
-42.0% |
| Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? |
Yes |
15 |
0.065 |
$0.97 |
$0.15 |
+17.7% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
1 |
0.625 |
$0.93 |
$-0.01 |
-0.8% |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? |
Yes |
30 |
0.022 |
$0.67 |
$-0.64 |
-48.9% |
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? |
Yes |
5 |
0.130 |
$0.65 |
$-0.95 |
-59.4% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
Yes |
6 |
0.070 |
$0.43 |
$-0.67 |
-61.1% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia before 2027? |
Yes |
40 |
0.005 |
$0.20 |
$-0.47 |
-70.1% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China before 2027? |
Yes |
19 |
0.004 |
$0.07 |
$0.01 |
+16.4% |