| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
No |
6,510 |
0.900 |
$5,859.39 |
$2,365.81 |
+67.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
5,727 |
0.785 |
$4,495.84 |
$1,398.51 |
+45.2% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
3,000 |
0.981 |
$2,941.50 |
$250.50 |
+9.3% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
2,933 |
0.895 |
$2,625.31 |
$971.07 |
+58.7% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
Yes |
74,671 |
0.034 |
$2,538.83 |
$-7,721.62 |
-75.3% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
Yes |
22,005 |
0.070 |
$1,540.35 |
$-2,289.20 |
-59.8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
9,534 |
0.160 |
$1,525.38 |
$858.03 |
+128.6% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
No |
11,365 |
0.130 |
$1,477.50 |
$-2,374.84 |
-61.6% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? |
No |
1,951 |
0.735 |
$1,434.12 |
$428.88 |
+42.7% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? |
No |
2,281 |
0.610 |
$1,391.61 |
$717.34 |
+106.4% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
1,015 |
0.785 |
$797.10 |
$452.17 |
+131.1% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
754 |
0.705 |
$531.61 |
$207.36 |
+64.0% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
No |
2,703 |
0.175 |
$472.94 |
$-626.11 |
-57.0% |
| US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? |
No |
456 |
0.982 |
$447.44 |
$19.14 |
+4.5% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
No |
1,300 |
0.195 |
$253.50 |
$-491.43 |
-66.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
532 |
0.385 |
$204.83 |
$130.35 |
+175.0% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
Yes |
230 |
0.100 |
$23.04 |
$-92.17 |
-80.0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
6 |
0.940 |
$5.63 |
$0.96 |
+20.5% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
Yes |
459 |
0.006 |
$2.75 |
$-24.73 |
-90.0% |