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Trader leaderboard/uraw

uraw

0x8a4ceea487d437f8ca48fde1533d09b61f6f2c4c
Scoped to Economy — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$414
Economy · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$100
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+9.9%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
40%
16W / 24L · 55 open
Win Return (30d)
46%
39W / 46L · 10 open
Trades (30d)
95
across 9 markets · ~11 per market
EV / position
+$137.91
avg win $240 · loss $66
Profit Factor
7.23
$480 won / $66 lost
Reward / Risk
3.61
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $2,550 · all-time $452,114

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 65.4% 68W/36L 28 $26,950
🏛 Politics 1 $627
💵 Economy 1 $627
₿ Crypto 1 $106

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

28 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? No 1,700 0.695 $1,181.33 $-99.67 -7.8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 860 0.755 $649.28 $168.87 +35.2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? No 700 0.815 $570.43 $0.43 +0.1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 553 0.961 $531.41 $31.41 +6.3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 1,032 0.465 $479.83 $-147.67 -23.5%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 560 0.845 $473.20 $63.40 +15.5%
Will China have an Ebola case in 2026? No 591 0.780 $461.10 $70.60 +18.1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? No 560 0.765 $428.40 $26.40 +6.6%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes 3,676 0.115 $422.72 $-516.70 -55.0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 255 0.945 $240.70 $35.70 +17.4%
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 600 0.375 $225.00 $-58.00 -20.5%
Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? Yes 1,769 0.125 $221.11 $-648.88 -74.6%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? No 366 0.495 $181.10 $15.46 +9.3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2,109 0.084 $176.09 $-32.91 -15.7%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 2,429 0.065 $157.86 $-132.14 -45.6%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 by December 31, 2026? No 261 0.570 $148.94 $-5.55 -3.6%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August? No 150 0.695 $104.23 $-2.27 -2.1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 by December 31, 2026? No 232 0.445 $103.22 $-28.97 -21.9%
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Yes 2,534 0.017 $41.81 $-253.53 -85.8%
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? Yes 314 0.125 $39.19 $-15.81 -28.7%
5kt meteor strike in 2026? Yes 124 0.275 $34.09 $-5.91 -14.8%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 131 0.184 $24.14 $-10.86 -31.0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 417 0.052 $21.87 $1.88 +9.4%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 417 0.049 $20.21 $0.21 +1.0%
ECB rate cut in 2026? Yes 224 0.090 $20.13 $-15.50 -43.5%