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Trader leaderboard/EdgeOfChaos

EdgeOfChaos

0x896a3897a964b950462c5e5578fa427dcc3d7b9c
Scoped to Tech — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$85
Tech · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$46
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-6.8%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
42%
8W / 11L · 148 open
Win Return (30d)
63%
103W / 61L · 3 open
Trades (30d)
167
across 30 markets · ~6 per market
EV / position
−$14.09
avg win $8 · loss $57
Profit Factor
0.26
$30 won / $115 lost
Reward / Risk
0.13
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$98
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $32 · all-time $362,555

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 59.7% 304W/205L 173 $18,159
🤖 Tech 0.0% 0W/4L 8 $665
🔬 Science 7 $631
💵 Economy 0.0% 0W/7L 6 $1,052
🏛 Politics 0.0% 0W/3L 3 $639
🎬 Culture 2 $38
₿ Crypto 1 $2

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

57 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 1,205 0.961 $1,157.40 $-0.48 -0.0%
Human moon landing in 2026? No 500 0.982 $491.00 $5.00 +1.0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 585 0.615 $359.56 $6.36 +1.8%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 300 0.988 $296.25 $2.95 +1.0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 350 0.811 $284.02 $21.42 +8.2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No 250 0.905 $226.25 $1.75 +0.8%
EU dissolves before 2027? No 200 0.978 $195.60 $2.00 +1.0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 200 0.974 $194.70 $4.90 +2.6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 200 0.945 $189.00 $5.00 +2.7%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 200 0.925 $185.00 $5.00 +2.8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 200 0.835 $167.00 $23.00 +16.0%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No 200 0.825 $165.00 $17.00 +11.5%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 209 0.650 $135.94 $-18.86 -12.2%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 200 0.625 $125.00 $17.22 +16.0%
Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2027? No 120 0.885 $106.44 $24.76 +30.3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No 100 0.968 $96.75 $0.75 +0.8%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 100 0.942 $94.15 $1.55 +1.7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 100 0.885 $88.50 $2.50 +2.9%
SHEIN IPO before 2027? Yes 96 0.911 $87.00 $5.63 +6.9%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 100 0.835 $83.50 $15.00 +21.9%
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 125 0.540 $67.36 $17.66 +35.5%
Will SpaceX have between 100-119 launches in 2026? No 60 0.975 $58.45 $-0.77 -1.3%
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No 60 0.936 $56.19 $5.10 +10.0%
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? Yes 95 0.530 $50.35 $7.85 +18.5%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? No 50 0.994 $49.70 $5.70 +13.0%