| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
19,458 |
0.385 |
$7,491.16 |
$-1,946.52 |
-20.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
6,598 |
0.825 |
$5,443.35 |
$-243.90 |
-4.3% |
| Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? |
No |
4,557 |
0.850 |
$3,873.57 |
$1,755.87 |
+82.9% |
| Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
No |
4,269 |
0.785 |
$3,351.24 |
$209.03 |
+6.7% |
| US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? |
No |
1,000 |
0.880 |
$879.99 |
$101.94 |
+13.1% |
| Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026? |
No |
1,059 |
0.760 |
$804.84 |
$-66.92 |
-7.7% |
| Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026? |
No |
807 |
0.925 |
$746.88 |
$20.35 |
+2.8% |
| Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections? |
No |
950 |
0.715 |
$679.39 |
$-15.81 |
-2.3% |
| Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? |
No |
885 |
0.685 |
$606.23 |
$44.81 |
+8.0% |
| US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026? |
Yes |
1,902 |
0.280 |
$532.57 |
$241.68 |
+83.1% |
| Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? |
Yes |
770 |
0.685 |
$527.45 |
$91.06 |
+20.9% |
| US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? |
Yes |
3,025 |
0.170 |
$514.31 |
$167.49 |
+48.3% |
| Will Michigan have the closest Senate race in 2026? |
No |
550 |
0.929 |
$511.63 |
$56.36 |
+12.4% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MN-08 House seat? |
No |
577 |
0.885 |
$510.64 |
$53.78 |
+11.8% |
| Will fewer than 200 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2? |
No |
511 |
0.988 |
$504.67 |
$368.89 |
+271.7% |
| Will Ohio (Special) have the closest Senate race in 2026? |
No |
625 |
0.762 |
$476.59 |
$-19.88 |
-4.0% |
| Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
472 |
0.987 |
$465.63 |
$94.35 |
+25.4% |
| Will the Republican Party win the MN-01 House seat? |
Yes |
577 |
0.720 |
$415.44 |
$-17.31 |
-4.0% |
| Will the Republican Party win the NY-02 House seat? |
Yes |
436 |
0.845 |
$368.42 |
$6.54 |
+1.8% |
| Will Minnesota have the closest Senate race in 2026? |
No |
369 |
0.991 |
$365.68 |
$44.08 |
+13.7% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? |
No |
379 |
0.963 |
$364.57 |
$64.91 |
+21.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
No |
500 |
0.695 |
$347.45 |
$-47.55 |
-12.0% |
| Will Georgia have the closest Senate race in 2026? |
No |
340 |
0.982 |
$333.47 |
$39.48 |
+13.4% |
| Will the Republican Party win the OH-10 House seat? |
Yes |
384 |
0.830 |
$318.72 |
$3.84 |
+1.2% |
| Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? |
No |
335 |
0.870 |
$291.62 |
$44.02 |
+17.8% |