| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
19,458 |
0.385 |
$7,491.16 |
$-1,946.52 |
-20.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
6,598 |
0.835 |
$5,509.33 |
$-177.91 |
-3.1% |
| Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? |
No |
4,557 |
0.855 |
$3,896.35 |
$1,778.65 |
+84.0% |
| Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
No |
4,269 |
0.790 |
$3,372.58 |
$230.37 |
+7.3% |
| Will Ohio (Special) have the closest Senate race in 2026? |
No |
1,156 |
0.895 |
$1,034.54 |
$116.99 |
+12.8% |
| US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? |
No |
1,000 |
0.880 |
$879.99 |
$101.94 |
+13.1% |
| Will Michigan have the closest Senate race in 2026? |
No |
897 |
0.945 |
$847.38 |
$105.72 |
+14.3% |
| Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026? |
No |
1,059 |
0.775 |
$820.73 |
$-51.04 |
-5.9% |
| Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026? |
No |
807 |
0.924 |
$746.07 |
$19.54 |
+2.7% |
| US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026? |
Yes |
2,305 |
0.310 |
$714.65 |
$362.09 |
+102.7% |
| Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections? |
No |
950 |
0.730 |
$693.65 |
$-1.56 |
-0.2% |
| Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? |
No |
885 |
0.705 |
$623.92 |
$62.51 |
+11.1% |
| Will fewer than 200 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2? |
No |
625 |
0.961 |
$600.62 |
$434.49 |
+261.5% |
| Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? |
Yes |
770 |
0.685 |
$527.45 |
$91.06 |
+20.9% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MN-08 House seat? |
No |
577 |
0.885 |
$510.64 |
$53.78 |
+11.8% |
| Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
472 |
0.977 |
$461.14 |
$89.86 |
+24.2% |
| Will the Republican Party win the MN-01 House seat? |
Yes |
577 |
0.720 |
$415.44 |
$-17.31 |
-4.0% |
| Will the Republican Party win the NY-02 House seat? |
Yes |
436 |
0.845 |
$368.42 |
$6.54 |
+1.8% |
| Will Minnesota have the closest Senate race in 2026? |
No |
369 |
0.991 |
$365.68 |
$44.08 |
+13.7% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? |
No |
379 |
0.964 |
$364.94 |
$65.29 |
+21.8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
No |
500 |
0.695 |
$347.45 |
$-47.55 |
-12.0% |
| Will Georgia have the closest Senate race in 2026? |
No |
340 |
0.979 |
$332.62 |
$38.63 |
+13.1% |
| Will the Republican Party win the OH-10 House seat? |
Yes |
384 |
0.830 |
$318.72 |
$3.84 |
+1.2% |
| Will "Hacks" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys? |
No |
510 |
0.575 |
$293.25 |
$59.03 |
+25.2% |
| Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? |
No |
335 |
0.870 |
$291.62 |
$44.02 |
+17.8% |