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Trader leaderboard/-Guapo--

-Guapo--

0x87256d0406f876184a66cc158415903bb242eb10
Scoped to Sports — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$7,094
Sports · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$618
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-2.1%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
41%
2,864W / 4,064L · 218 open
Win Return (30d)
42%
2,966W / 4,174L · 6 open
Trades (30d)
7,146
across 786 markets · ~9 per market
EV / position
−$9.24
avg win $379 · loss $341
Profit Factor
0.95
$134,155 won / $141,250 lost
Reward / Risk
1.11
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$16,962
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $297,766 · all-time $7,783,343

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 41.4% 3,589W/5,072L 996 $416,713
⚽ Sports 46.5% 1,675W/1,931L 414 $162,842
🏛 Politics 1 $42

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

31 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 15,776 0.462 $7,280.82 $-2,206.05 -23.3%
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 5,778 0.966 $5,581.49 $2,171.16 +63.7%
Will Indiana Fever win the 2026 WNBA Finals? No 2,384 0.890 $2,121.77 $18.91 +0.9%
Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals? No 2,256 0.912 $2,059.00 $2.33 +0.1%
Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals? No 3,311 0.565 $1,870.42 $-342.33 -15.5%
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026? No 2,382 0.715 $1,703.02 $8.11 +0.5%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 1,614 0.905 $1,461.41 $409.82 +39.0%
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes 2,197 0.655 $1,439.17 $32.48 +2.3%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 1,106 0.954 $1,054.18 $9.43 +0.9%
Will Flamengo win Brazil Série A? No 677 0.625 $423.40 $68.44 +19.3%
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 414 0.988 $408.82 $62.26 +18.0%
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes 3,102 0.125 $387.75 $-88.33 -18.6%
Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals? No 320 0.895 $286.35 $13.35 +4.9%
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 American League Championship Series? No 225 0.905 $203.62 $23.62 +13.1%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026? No 147 0.912 $133.94 $4.49 +3.5%
FK Auda Riga vs. Ogre United: FK Auda Riga O/U 2.5 Over 217 0.500 $108.51 $0.00 +0.0%
Spread: TSG Hoffenheim (-1.5) Karlsruher SC 138 0.251 $34.52 $-56.44 -62.0%
Will TSG Hoffenheim win on 2026-08-01? No 492 0.051 $25.34 $-192.82 -88.4%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 477 0.023 $10.97 $-5.83 -34.7%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 22 0.395 $8.80 $-3.05 -25.7%
Will Top Esports win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 63 0.096 $6.02 $4.57 +315.2%
CA Guemes vs. CSD Tristan Suarez: O/U 1.5 Under 210 0.019 $4.09 $-98.80 -96.0%
Will Anyone's Legend win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 18 0.175 $3.24 $-0.30 -8.5%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 409 0.006 $2.66 $-4.34 -62.0%
Will Athletico Paranaense win Brazil Série A? Yes 158 0.013 $2.14 $1.56 +269.6%