| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
13,197 |
0.625 |
$8,247.95 |
$-2,443.73 |
-22.9% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
7,980 |
0.785 |
$6,264.32 |
$79.51 |
+1.3% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? |
No |
8,000 |
0.755 |
$6,040.00 |
$260.01 |
+4.5% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
No |
8,787 |
0.655 |
$5,755.58 |
$-431.80 |
-7.0% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? |
No |
5,700 |
0.988 |
$5,628.28 |
$513.18 |
+10.0% |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? |
No |
7,117 |
0.740 |
$5,266.47 |
$-897.21 |
-14.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
4,768 |
0.895 |
$4,267.47 |
$1,196.31 |
+39.0% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 |
Yes |
3,973 |
0.820 |
$3,257.67 |
$774.25 |
+31.2% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? |
No |
3,000 |
0.893 |
$2,679.00 |
$-174.00 |
-6.1% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
3,024 |
0.855 |
$2,585.21 |
$477.32 |
+22.6% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
3,357 |
0.705 |
$2,366.72 |
$683.22 |
+40.6% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
No |
2,693 |
0.835 |
$2,249.05 |
$689.66 |
+44.2% |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? |
No |
1,520 |
0.875 |
$1,330.15 |
$-7.60 |
-0.6% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
No |
2,933 |
0.450 |
$1,319.87 |
$-214.95 |
-14.0% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
1,402 |
0.853 |
$1,195.19 |
$150.92 |
+14.5% |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? |
No |
1,032 |
0.940 |
$970.37 |
$278.72 |
+40.3% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
No |
7,000 |
0.130 |
$909.99 |
$-2,075.63 |
-69.5% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
2,935 |
0.195 |
$572.23 |
$-1,918.12 |
-77.0% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
No |
2,116 |
0.165 |
$349.15 |
$-1,003.97 |
-74.2% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
320 |
0.976 |
$312.00 |
$5.60 |
+1.8% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
320 |
0.935 |
$299.12 |
$11.20 |
+3.9% |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30? |
No |
166 |
0.745 |
$123.97 |
$5.82 |
+4.9% |