| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
13,197 |
0.615 |
$8,115.98 |
$-2,575.70 |
-24.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
7,980 |
0.785 |
$6,264.32 |
$79.51 |
+1.3% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? |
No |
8,000 |
0.750 |
$6,000.00 |
$220.01 |
+3.8% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? |
No |
5,700 |
0.988 |
$5,628.28 |
$513.18 |
+10.0% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
No |
8,787 |
0.635 |
$5,579.84 |
$-607.54 |
-9.8% |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? |
No |
7,117 |
0.725 |
$5,159.72 |
$-1,003.97 |
-16.3% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
4,768 |
0.895 |
$4,267.47 |
$1,196.31 |
+39.0% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 |
Yes |
3,973 |
0.820 |
$3,257.67 |
$774.25 |
+31.2% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? |
No |
3,000 |
0.898 |
$2,694.00 |
$-159.00 |
-5.6% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
3,024 |
0.855 |
$2,585.21 |
$477.32 |
+22.6% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
3,357 |
0.705 |
$2,366.72 |
$683.22 |
+40.6% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
No |
2,693 |
0.835 |
$2,249.05 |
$689.66 |
+44.2% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
No |
2,933 |
0.460 |
$1,349.20 |
$-185.62 |
-12.1% |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? |
No |
1,520 |
0.875 |
$1,330.15 |
$-7.60 |
-0.6% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
1,402 |
0.853 |
$1,195.19 |
$150.92 |
+14.5% |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? |
No |
1,032 |
0.940 |
$970.37 |
$278.72 |
+40.3% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
No |
7,000 |
0.130 |
$909.99 |
$-2,075.63 |
-69.5% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
2,935 |
0.215 |
$630.92 |
$-1,859.43 |
-74.7% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
No |
2,116 |
0.175 |
$370.31 |
$-982.81 |
-72.6% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
320 |
0.976 |
$312.00 |
$5.60 |
+1.8% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
320 |
0.935 |
$299.12 |
$11.20 |
+3.9% |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30? |
No |
166 |
0.760 |
$126.47 |
$8.32 |
+7.0% |