PnL (30d)

−$9,401

Culture · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$1,215

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-30.9%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

35%

147W / 275L · 21 open

Win Return (30d)

34%

149W / 294L

Trades (30d)

443

across 41 markets · ~11 per market

EV / position

−$268.60

avg win $879 · loss $666

Profit Factor

0.46

$7,909 won / $17,310 lost

Reward / Risk

1.32

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$5,435

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	58.3% 671W/480L	182	$190,376
🏛 Politics	17.5% 11W/52L	18	$17,956
🎬 Culture	14.8% 9W/52L	17	$17,185
⚽ Sports	60.9% 14W/9L	17	$15,503
💵 Economy	100.0% 2W/0L	1	$771

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

27 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?	Yes	4,000	0.970	$3,878.00	$2,082.32	+116.0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	3,000	0.824	$2,471.79	$-3.34	-0.1%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	2,395	0.645	$1,544.56	$101.76	+7.1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	1,000	0.615	$615.00	$-75.00	-10.9%
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	Yes	1,000	0.265	$265.00	$-45.00	-14.5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	2,502	0.075	$187.65	$-220.61	-54.0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?	Yes	3,000	0.030	$91.51	$-567.83	-86.1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	2,613	0.018	$45.73	$-290.17	-86.4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	2,689	0.006	$17.48	$-219.74	-92.6%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	170	0.075	$12.75	$-31.65	-71.3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	105	0.055	$5.78	$-6.57	-53.2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	2,178	0.003	$5.45	$-130.35	-96.0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	160	0.026	$4.16	$-23.64	-85.0%
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Yes	91	0.029	$2.64	$-4.41	-62.6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	60	0.029	$1.71	$-2.49	-59.3%
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Yes	196	0.002	$0.39	$-10.33	-96.3%
Will Islamic Charitable Projects Association win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Yes	199	0.002	$0.30	$-3.16	-91.4%
Will Free Patriotic Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Yes	300	0.001	$0.15	$-6.41	-97.7%
Will Marada Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Yes	276	0.001	$0.14	$-6.34	-97.9%
Will Taqaddom Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Yes	251	0.001	$0.13	$-7.66	-98.4%
Will ReLebanon win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Yes	250	0.001	$0.13	$-7.31	-98.3%
Will National Liberal Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Yes	200	0.001	$0.10	$-1.69	-94.4%
Will Watani Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Yes	153	0.001	$0.08	$-3.13	-97.6%
Will Union Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Yes	150	0.001	$0.07	$-1.66	-95.7%
Will Kataeb Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Yes	130	0.001	$0.07	$-1.46	-95.7%