PnL (30d)

−$14

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$1

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-38.8%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

14%

14W / 83L · 9 open

Win Return (30d)

16%

17W / 89L

Trades (30d)

106

across 31 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$0.54

avg win $4 · loss $1

Profit Factor

0.38

$9 won / $23 lost

Reward / Risk

4.71

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$7

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	17.1% 895W/4,333L	1759	$3,045
🌤 Weather	1.9% 15W/784L	244	$204
🏛 Politics	20.3% 14W/55L	22	$41
🎬 Culture	19.1% 9W/38L	17	$24
💵 Economy	29.2% 7W/17L	3	$23

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

86 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 5?	Yes	23	0.997	$23.28	$22.11	+1894.0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 4?	Yes	6	1.000	$5.87	$5.57	+1899.0%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	6	0.489	$2.84	$1.68	+144.7%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on August 6?	Yes	42	0.065	$2.72	$1.05	+62.5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 5?	Yes	57	0.042	$2.37	$1.23	+107.5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 5?	Yes	22	0.105	$2.30	$1.37	+148.3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on August 5?	Yes	9	0.225	$2.02	$1.57	+350.0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 6?	Yes	35	0.055	$1.93	$0.17	+10.0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	79	0.021	$1.69	$0.42	+32.6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 6?	Yes	28	0.060	$1.68	$0.77	+84.8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on August 6?	Yes	36	0.045	$1.63	$-0.09	-5.2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on August 5?	Yes	32	0.050	$1.60	$0.12	+8.4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C or higher on August 6?	Yes	49	0.033	$1.58	$0.41	+35.4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	49	0.028	$1.35	$0.17	+14.6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 7?	Yes	30	0.045	$1.35	$-0.20	-12.9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 6?	Yes	24	0.055	$1.29	$0.12	+10.0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on August 6?	Yes	51	0.025	$1.27	$-0.82	-39.2%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	5	0.250	$1.25	$0.05	+4.2%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	1	0.785	$1.08	$0.73	+214.0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on August 6?	Yes	48	0.020	$0.96	$-1.22	-56.0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on August 6?	Yes	30	0.030	$0.91	$0.30	+50.0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 5?	Yes	36	0.025	$0.89	$-0.24	-20.9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?	Yes	69	0.013	$0.86	$-3.99	-82.3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 6?	Yes	20	0.040	$0.81	$-0.05	-5.8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on August 5?	Yes	23	0.035	$0.80	$-0.06	-7.4%