PnL (30d)

−$165

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$2

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-6.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

17%

895W / 4,295L · 374 open

Win Return (30d)

19%

1,042W / 4,507L · 15 open

Trades (30d)

5,564

across 1,759 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$0.10

avg win $3 · loss $1

Profit Factor

0.87

$1,153 won / $1,318 lost

Reward / Risk

2.48

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$180

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	17.2% 895W/4,295L	1759	$3,045
🌤 Weather	1.9% 15W/757L	244	$204
🏛 Politics	20.3% 14W/55L	22	$41
🎬 Culture	19.1% 9W/38L	17	$24
💵 Economy	29.2% 7W/17L	3	$23

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

84 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 5?	Yes	23	0.395	$9.22	$8.06	+690.0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 4?	Yes	6	1.000	$5.87	$5.57	+1899.0%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	6	0.539	$3.13	$1.97	+169.7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 5?	Yes	57	0.053	$3.06	$1.91	+167.5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 5?	Yes	22	0.115	$2.52	$1.59	+172.0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 6?	Yes	35	0.060	$2.10	$0.35	+20.0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	79	0.024	$1.86	$0.58	+45.6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on August 6?	Yes	36	0.051	$1.85	$0.13	+7.3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on August 5?	Yes	9	0.200	$1.80	$1.35	+300.0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on August 5?	Yes	32	0.050	$1.60	$0.12	+8.4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 6?	Yes	26	0.060	$1.57	$0.73	+87.9%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on August 6?	Yes	42	0.035	$1.47	$-0.21	-12.5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on August 5?	Yes	35	0.038	$1.33	$0.14	+12.2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	49	0.026	$1.30	$0.12	+10.4%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	5	0.245	$1.23	$0.03	+2.1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on August 6?	Yes	48	0.025	$1.20	$-0.98	-45.0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 6?	Yes	24	0.050	$1.18	$0.00	+0.0%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	1	0.785	$1.08	$0.73	+214.0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 5?	Yes	36	0.030	$1.07	$-0.06	-5.1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?	Yes	69	0.015	$0.99	$-3.85	-79.5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on August 6?	Yes	30	0.030	$0.89	$0.30	+50.0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C or higher on August 6?	Yes	49	0.018	$0.88	$-0.29	-25.0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 6?	Yes	20	0.040	$0.81	$-0.05	-5.8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 7?	Yes	10	0.065	$0.65	$0.10	+18.2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	4	0.155	$0.64	$-0.40	-38.0%