Trader
0x812b220a196d4c1da4413f11f0756de681f5bbcf
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
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PnL (30d)
−$17
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$3
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-10.5%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
64%
16W / 9L · 2 open
Win Return (30d)
63%
17W / 10L
Trades (30d)
27
across 15 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
−$1.33
avg win $1 · loss $5
Profit Factor
0.34
$9 won / $26 lost
Reward / Risk
0.22
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$1
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $132 · all-time $6,804
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
7 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
22 |
0.966 |
$21.00 |
$1.00 |
+5.0% |
| Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by August 31? |
No |
22 |
0.905 |
$19.89 |
$-0.11 |
-0.5% |
| Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? |
No |
22 |
0.710 |
$15.61 |
$-4.40 |
-22.0% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026? |
No |
11 |
0.982 |
$10.34 |
$0.34 |
+3.4% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
10 |
0.940 |
$8.95 |
$0.95 |
+11.9% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? |
No |
8 |
0.988 |
$8.16 |
$0.16 |
+2.0% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026? |
No |
9 |
0.875 |
$7.87 |
$-0.13 |
-1.7% |