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Trader leaderboard/J25525

J25525

0x7e80049eb08ac45b6ddadd8d069db6fd94ba631b
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$205
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$4
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-6.2%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
32%
342W / 713L · 71 open
Win Return (30d)
32%
342W / 725L · 59 open
Trades (30d)
1,126
across 351 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
−$0.64
avg win $1 · loss $1
Profit Factor
0.32
$94 won / $299 lost
Reward / Risk
0.67
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$10
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $13,874 · all-time $8,421,041

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 23.2% 1,942W/6,443L 3290 $65,953
🌤 Weather 48.7% 57W/60L 51 $355
🏛 Politics 60.0% 15W/10L 48 $309
🎬 Culture 32.6% 14W/29L 37 $315
⚽ Sports 37.5% 3W/5L 29 $266
💵 Economy 45.5% 5W/6L 22 $169
🤖 Tech 64.7% 11W/6L 17 $143
₿ Crypto 0.0% 0W/2L 5 $31
🔬 Science 1 $4

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

181 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
NZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote) Labour 20 0.585 $11.70 $-2.50 -17.6%
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most rushing touchdowns? Yes 50 0.095 $4.75 $-1.75 -26.9%
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $440,000 on September 30? Yes 50 0.075 $3.76 $-5.77 -60.5%
Will Mitchell Berman be the WI-01 Democratic nominee? Yes 3 0.998 $3.01 $0.63 +26.3%
Will Lateefah Simon win the CA-12 House seat? No 51 0.055 $2.79 $-0.76 -21.4%
Will Tigres UANL record the most clean sheets in the 2026-27 Liga MX season? Yes 20 0.135 $2.70 $-1.90 -41.3%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during remarks in Las Vegas? Yes 20 0.135 $2.70 $-0.50 -15.6%
Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by December 31, 2026? Yes 20 0.130 $2.62 $-4.64 -63.9%
Will Arizona Cardinals finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most return yards? Yes 20 0.130 $2.60 $0.40 +18.2%
Will Junior Caminero hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 6 0.398 $2.52 $1.69 +205.7%
Will Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? Yes 5 0.525 $2.50 $1.69 +208.8%
Will Linda Gorton win the 2026 Lexington mayoral election? No 15 0.165 $2.48 $-2.48 -50.0%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of August 15? No 20 0.115 $2.31 $0.30 +15.0%
John Ratcliffe out as CIA Director by December 31? Yes 20 0.110 $2.20 $-1.80 -45.0%
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes 20 0.110 $2.20 $0.40 +22.2%
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-34 House seat? No 50 0.042 $2.10 $-0.25 -10.6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 5? No 3 0.630 $2.09 $-0.17 -7.4%
Will Casey Askar be the FL-22 Republican nominee? Yes 19 0.107 $2.03 $-0.28 -12.3%
Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes 20 0.095 $1.90 $-0.50 -20.8%
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in August? Yes 15 0.120 $1.82 $0.30 +20.0%
Will JPMorgan (JPM) close at USD 1 trillion or more market cap by December 31? No 3 0.585 $1.76 $0.68 +62.5%
Will Jamie Lee Curtis – “The Bear” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a comedy series? Yes 21 0.078 $1.63 $-0.88 -35.0%
Will Nermin Nikšić be the next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina? No 2 0.830 $1.59 $0.99 +167.7%
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? Yes 20 0.075 $1.50 $-0.10 -6.2%
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by August 31? Yes 20 0.071 $1.45 $0.03 +2.0%