| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
No |
550 |
0.925 |
$508.75 |
$4.75 |
+0.9% |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
Yes |
552 |
0.886 |
$489.51 |
$4.46 |
+0.9% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
871 |
0.515 |
$448.47 |
$92.23 |
+25.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
No |
600 |
0.695 |
$416.94 |
$-49.06 |
-10.5% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
546 |
0.715 |
$390.41 |
$68.38 |
+21.2% |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Yes |
1,708 |
0.213 |
$364.55 |
$-162.52 |
-30.8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
400 |
0.835 |
$334.00 |
$-12.00 |
-3.5% |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? |
No |
450 |
0.675 |
$303.69 |
$19.25 |
+6.8% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Yes |
675 |
0.445 |
$300.57 |
$-11.82 |
-3.8% |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
No |
646 |
0.460 |
$296.99 |
$-17.32 |
-5.5% |
| Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? |
No |
300 |
0.945 |
$283.49 |
$19.93 |
+7.6% |
| Iran leadership change by September 30? |
No |
300 |
0.945 |
$283.49 |
$16.50 |
+6.2% |
| Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%? |
Yes |
274 |
0.970 |
$265.78 |
$34.92 |
+15.1% |
| Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? |
No |
500 |
0.505 |
$252.50 |
$2.50 |
+1.0% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by less than 20%? |
No |
251 |
0.968 |
$242.60 |
$10.29 |
+4.4% |
| Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? |
Yes |
342 |
0.590 |
$201.94 |
$-18.79 |
-8.5% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
353 |
0.535 |
$189.16 |
$8.13 |
+4.5% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
195 |
0.895 |
$174.53 |
$54.60 |
+45.5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
400 |
0.380 |
$152.00 |
$-24.00 |
-13.6% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more? |
Yes |
700 |
0.215 |
$150.60 |
$-131.64 |
-46.6% |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? |
Yes |
509 |
0.295 |
$150.12 |
$-14.22 |
-8.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
150 |
1.000 |
$149.91 |
$27.99 |
+23.0% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
172 |
0.855 |
$147.42 |
$20.21 |
+15.9% |
| Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? |
Yes |
331 |
0.430 |
$142.49 |
$76.22 |
+115.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
148 |
0.900 |
$132.88 |
$39.11 |
+41.7% |