| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
No |
550 |
0.925 |
$508.75 |
$4.75 |
+0.9% |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
Yes |
552 |
0.886 |
$489.51 |
$4.46 |
+0.9% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
871 |
0.525 |
$457.18 |
$100.94 |
+28.3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
No |
600 |
0.695 |
$416.94 |
$-49.06 |
-10.5% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
546 |
0.715 |
$390.41 |
$68.38 |
+21.2% |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Yes |
1,708 |
0.213 |
$364.55 |
$-162.52 |
-30.8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
400 |
0.825 |
$330.00 |
$-16.00 |
-4.6% |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? |
No |
450 |
0.685 |
$308.19 |
$23.75 |
+8.3% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Yes |
675 |
0.445 |
$300.57 |
$-11.82 |
-3.8% |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
No |
646 |
0.461 |
$297.64 |
$-16.68 |
-5.3% |
| Iran leadership change by September 30? |
No |
300 |
0.945 |
$283.49 |
$16.50 |
+6.2% |
| Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? |
No |
300 |
0.935 |
$280.49 |
$16.93 |
+6.4% |
| Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%? |
Yes |
274 |
0.975 |
$267.15 |
$36.29 |
+15.7% |
| Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? |
No |
500 |
0.505 |
$252.50 |
$2.50 |
+1.0% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by less than 20%? |
No |
251 |
0.968 |
$242.60 |
$10.29 |
+4.4% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
353 |
0.575 |
$202.94 |
$21.91 |
+12.1% |
| Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? |
Yes |
342 |
0.590 |
$201.94 |
$-18.79 |
-8.5% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
195 |
0.905 |
$176.47 |
$56.55 |
+47.2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
400 |
0.385 |
$154.00 |
$-22.00 |
-12.5% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more? |
Yes |
700 |
0.215 |
$150.60 |
$-131.64 |
-46.6% |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? |
Yes |
509 |
0.295 |
$150.12 |
$-14.22 |
-8.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
150 |
1.000 |
$149.91 |
$27.99 |
+23.0% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
172 |
0.855 |
$147.42 |
$20.21 |
+15.9% |
| Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? |
Yes |
331 |
0.435 |
$144.15 |
$77.87 |
+117.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
148 |
0.910 |
$134.35 |
$40.58 |
+43.3% |