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Trader leaderboard/ragutwo

ragutwo

0x7db8cfe928918e6f7f80a31d98757d97e743ed19
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$171
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$165
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+5.3%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
56%
146W / 116L · 90 open
Win Return (30d)
48%
168W / 184L
Trades (30d)
352
across 44 markets · ~8 per market
EV / position
+$5.89
avg win $43 · loss $14
Profit Factor
1.65
$432 won / $262 lost
Reward / Risk
3.14
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$10
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $11,430 · all-time $191,703

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 62.9% 670W/396L 198 $24,181
⚽ Sports 36.4% 12W/21L 21 $187
🏛 Politics 69.1% 38W/17L 13 $1,168
🎬 Culture 100.0% 7W/0L 3 $79
💵 Economy 0.0% 0W/14L 2 $148
₿ Crypto 1 $3

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

32 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? No 475 0.855 $406.16 $4.98 +1.2%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? No 434 0.815 $353.67 $1.15 +0.3%
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2026? No 226 0.820 $185.03 $65.61 +54.9%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? No 200 0.440 $88.00 $-2.00 -2.2%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Yes 107 0.625 $66.88 $0.53 +0.8%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? Yes 75 0.475 $35.62 $-1.88 -5.0%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? No 57 0.519 $29.86 $-0.07 -0.2%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15? Yes 134 0.160 $21.47 $-1.34 -5.9%
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? Yes 73 0.240 $17.43 $-7.31 -29.5%
Theo James announced as next James Bond? Yes 61 0.273 $16.65 $15.43 +1262.5%
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 79 0.206 $16.39 $4.98 +43.6%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9? Yes 294 0.055 $16.20 $1.47 +10.0%
Will Russia capture Vodianske by September 30? Yes 39 0.230 $8.97 $-3.51 -28.1%
Will Donald Trump visit Ireland in 2026? No 45 0.190 $8.55 $5.46 +176.5%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9? Yes 140 0.055 $7.70 $-0.30 -3.7%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August? No 40 0.145 $5.80 $-3.40 -37.0%
Jack Lowdon announced as next James Bond? Yes 19 0.299 $5.73 $4.96 +647.5%
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026? Yes 24 0.205 $4.92 $-2.94 -37.4%
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? Yes 38 0.118 $4.53 $3.76 +492.5%
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? Yes 38 0.117 $4.44 $-3.65 -45.1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 25 0.165 $4.12 $-2.38 -36.5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? Yes 47 0.079 $3.71 $-2.87 -43.6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 30 0.115 $3.45 $0.15 +4.5%
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? No 5 0.675 $3.40 $0.90 +36.1%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 40 0.075 $3.00 $-1.80 -37.5%