PnL (30d)

+$1,577

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$457

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+11.8%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

51%

112W / 108L · 333 open

Win Return (30d)

54%

300W / 253L

Trades (30d)

553

across 55 markets · ~10 per market

EV / position

+$105.14

avg win $199 · loss $36

Profit Factor

8.24

$1,795 won / $218 lost

Reward / Risk

5.50

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$94

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	50.9% 112W/108L	55	$15,150
🤖 Tech	—	10	$449
🏛 Politics	100.0% 4W/0L	7	$726

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

44 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	2,344	0.935	$2,191.49	$-31.52	-1.4%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	1,919	0.845	$1,621.22	$182.93	+12.7%
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?	No	1,020	0.895	$912.78	$23.70	+2.7%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	871	0.952	$828.54	$66.16	+8.7%
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	1,868	0.300	$560.27	$35.86	+6.8%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?	No	537	0.968	$519.73	$19.16	+3.8%
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30?	Yes	1,332	0.385	$513.00	$-103.40	-16.8%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026?	No	478	0.940	$448.90	$40.87	+10.0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	571	0.685	$391.47	$25.00	+6.8%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?	No	429	0.745	$319.24	$-18.49	-5.5%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	2,419	0.130	$314.45	$36.36	+13.1%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?	No	298	0.985	$293.36	$16.84	+6.1%
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?	Yes	484	0.565	$273.33	$44.08	+19.2%
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?	No	278	0.941	$261.74	$34.87	+15.4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	513	0.425	$218.14	$-15.64	-6.7%
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30?	No	335	0.650	$217.75	$-13.25	-5.7%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	1,561	0.135	$210.74	$75.10	+55.4%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	No	215	0.815	$175.37	$2.45	+1.4%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	230	0.705	$162.21	$33.25	+25.8%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	257	0.605	$155.48	$11.77	+8.2%
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	608	0.245	$148.90	$-177.28	-54.3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	361	0.405	$146.21	$46.26	+46.3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	4,583	0.020	$91.67	$-18.67	-16.9%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	1,000	0.075	$75.00	$5.00	+7.1%
Will Russia capture Prymorske by September 30, 2026?	No	72	0.967	$70.01	$4.13	+6.3%