| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
130,615 |
0.715 |
$93,389.48 |
$31,311.73 |
+50.4% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? |
No |
57,744 |
0.885 |
$51,103.10 |
$16,130.62 |
+46.1% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
No |
135,101 |
0.365 |
$49,311.69 |
$-1,580.95 |
-3.1% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
66,183 |
0.675 |
$44,673.84 |
$9,102.54 |
+25.6% |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
57,141 |
0.675 |
$38,570.15 |
$4,296.03 |
+12.5% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
20,655 |
0.535 |
$11,050.66 |
$1,342.60 |
+13.8% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
Yes |
158,951 |
0.065 |
$10,331.85 |
$-4,634.39 |
-31.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
10,005 |
0.815 |
$8,153.10 |
$4,693.15 |
+135.6% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
15,687 |
0.475 |
$7,451.26 |
$-1,176.52 |
-13.6% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
45,435 |
0.155 |
$7,042.42 |
$-2,457.53 |
-25.9% |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
10,375 |
0.635 |
$6,587.96 |
$517.77 |
+8.5% |
| Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
Yes |
5,092 |
1.000 |
$5,089.39 |
$696.21 |
+15.8% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
5,186 |
0.830 |
$4,304.76 |
$2,748.82 |
+176.7% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
Yes |
143,857 |
0.020 |
$2,877.14 |
$-8,534.76 |
-74.8% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
Yes |
111,783 |
0.025 |
$2,738.69 |
$-2,216.33 |
-44.7% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
2,040 |
0.735 |
$1,499.48 |
$255.01 |
+20.5% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? |
Yes |
9,770 |
0.105 |
$1,025.90 |
$-1,514.32 |
-59.6% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
Yes |
11,711 |
0.060 |
$702.67 |
$-3,179.15 |
-81.9% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
1,624 |
0.353 |
$574.21 |
$460.51 |
+405.0% |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? |
No |
637 |
0.685 |
$436.37 |
$35.49 |
+8.9% |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? |
Yes |
15,917 |
0.021 |
$340.62 |
$-1,431.57 |
-80.8% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
Yes |
3,434 |
0.095 |
$326.24 |
$-1,186.43 |
-78.4% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
8,120 |
0.038 |
$308.54 |
$-259.83 |
-45.7% |
| US x China Military clash before 2027? |
Yes |
6,164 |
0.044 |
$271.21 |
$-36.53 |
-11.9% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? |
Yes |
10,271 |
0.015 |
$148.93 |
$-46.22 |
-23.7% |