| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
130,615 |
0.715 |
$93,389.48 |
$31,311.73 |
+50.4% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? |
No |
57,744 |
0.885 |
$51,103.10 |
$16,130.62 |
+46.1% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
No |
135,101 |
0.375 |
$50,662.70 |
$-229.94 |
-0.5% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
66,183 |
0.675 |
$44,673.84 |
$9,102.54 |
+25.6% |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
57,141 |
0.675 |
$38,570.15 |
$4,296.03 |
+12.5% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
20,655 |
0.545 |
$11,257.22 |
$1,549.16 |
+16.0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
Yes |
158,951 |
0.065 |
$10,331.85 |
$-4,634.39 |
-31.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
10,005 |
0.785 |
$7,853.95 |
$4,394.00 |
+127.0% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
15,687 |
0.485 |
$7,608.13 |
$-1,019.65 |
-11.8% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
45,435 |
0.165 |
$7,496.77 |
$-2,003.18 |
-21.1% |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
10,375 |
0.635 |
$6,587.96 |
$517.77 |
+8.5% |
| Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
Yes |
113,273 |
0.046 |
$5,210.56 |
$-11,431.87 |
-68.7% |
| Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
Yes |
5,092 |
0.949 |
$4,829.70 |
$436.52 |
+9.9% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
5,186 |
0.785 |
$4,071.37 |
$2,515.43 |
+161.7% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
Yes |
143,857 |
0.019 |
$2,805.22 |
$-8,606.69 |
-75.4% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
Yes |
111,783 |
0.025 |
$2,738.69 |
$-2,216.33 |
-44.7% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
2,040 |
0.705 |
$1,438.28 |
$193.81 |
+15.6% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? |
Yes |
9,770 |
0.115 |
$1,123.60 |
$-1,416.61 |
-55.8% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
Yes |
11,711 |
0.060 |
$702.67 |
$-3,179.15 |
-81.9% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
1,624 |
0.356 |
$579.09 |
$465.38 |
+409.3% |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? |
No |
637 |
0.685 |
$436.37 |
$35.49 |
+8.9% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
Yes |
3,434 |
0.100 |
$343.41 |
$-1,169.26 |
-77.3% |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? |
Yes |
15,917 |
0.021 |
$340.62 |
$-1,431.57 |
-80.8% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
8,120 |
0.037 |
$304.48 |
$-263.89 |
-46.4% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
42,136 |
0.007 |
$294.95 |
$-1,796.12 |
-85.9% |