PnL (30d)

−$22

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$119

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-1.1%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

20%

160W / 629L · 453 open

Win Return (30d)

37%

462W / 776L · 4 open

Trades (30d)

1,242

across 84 markets · ~15 per market

EV / position

−$5.40

avg win $29 · loss $40

Profit Factor

0.73

$58 won / $79 lost

Reward / Risk

0.73

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	19.6% 452W/1,849L	161	$8,758
🏛 Politics	—	3	$20
💵 Economy	100.0% 1W/0L	1	$0

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?	Yes	218	0.644	$140.69	$89.35	+174.0%
Will Zohran Mamdani be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	1,433	0.061	$87.44	$-62.88	-41.8%
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	397	0.170	$67.35	$7.35	+12.3%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	1,801	0.035	$62.12	$16.73	+36.8%
Will the Republicans win the Illinois Senate race in 2026?	Yes	980	0.059	$58.33	$28.74	+97.1%
Will the Republican Party win the CO-02 House seat?	Yes	976	0.059	$57.08	$14.53	+34.2%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	1,621	0.035	$55.93	$20.26	+56.8%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	1,274	0.039	$49.69	$1.14	+2.4%
Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?	Yes	1,033	0.042	$42.86	$4.15	+10.7%
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	Yes	830	0.051	$42.76	$3.46	+8.8%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?	Yes	106	0.377	$39.85	$31.73	+390.9%
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?	Yes	164	0.243	$39.74	$16.56	+71.4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	1,023	0.038	$39.38	$-15.70	-28.5%
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	1,225	0.032	$38.57	$-21.43	-35.7%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	2,645	0.015	$38.36	$-1.32	-3.3%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	1,776	0.021	$38.02	$-4.06	-9.6%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1,487	0.025	$37.76	$4.14	+12.3%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	1,582	0.022	$34.80	$9.62	+38.2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	258	0.135	$34.69	$-0.39	-1.1%
Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026?	Yes	525	0.063	$33.09	$3.46	+11.7%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	1,179	0.028	$32.43	$29.23	+915.1%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	4,987	0.006	$32.42	$2.49	+8.3%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	150	0.213	$31.92	$27.61	+641.5%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	815	0.039	$31.79	$14.25	+81.2%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	1,592	0.019	$31.04	$-25.88	-45.5%