PnL (30d)

−$2,418

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$465

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-4.6%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

46%

1,848W / 2,151L · 1,175 open

Win Return (30d)

52%

2,665W / 2,496L · 13 open

Trades (30d)

5,174

across 354 markets · ~15 per market

EV / position

−$9.23

avg win $22 · loss $34

Profit Factor

0.52

$2,589 won / $5,007 lost

Reward / Risk

0.65

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$1,252

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	46.2% 1,848W/2,151L	354	$104,054
🏛 Politics	40.9% 123W/178L	63	$9,077
🎬 Culture	36.9% 104W/178L	46	$6,550
💵 Economy	53.3% 49W/43L	10	$1,822

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

20 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	850	0.110	$93.50	$-38.00	-28.9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	800	0.095	$76.00	$3.99	+5.5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?	Yes	250	0.290	$72.50	$0.00	+0.0%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	Yes	1,121	0.043	$48.08	$5.49	+12.9%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	600	0.080	$48.00	$-12.00	-20.0%
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?	Yes	500	0.070	$35.00	$0.00	+0.0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Yes	300	0.115	$34.50	$-7.50	-17.9%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	167	0.180	$30.01	$8.34	+38.5%
Will Pete Hegseth attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	677	0.040	$27.07	$-30.26	-52.8%
Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	301	0.085	$25.58	$-19.56	-43.3%
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	92	0.221	$20.43	$-18.58	-47.6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?	Yes	1,394	0.012	$16.72	$-13.96	-45.5%
Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	213	0.065	$13.81	$-20.46	-59.7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	Yes	1,010	0.013	$12.62	$-1.51	-10.7%
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Yes	41	0.260	$10.79	$1.24	+13.0%
Will John Ratcliffe leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	22	0.125	$2.75	$0.33	+13.6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Yes	87	0.019	$1.69	$0.04	+2.6%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	8	0.080	$0.63	$0.08	+14.3%
Will Trump say "No No No" during remarks in Las Vegas?	Yes	1	0.385	$0.57	$0.01	+1.3%
Will Trump say "Stock Market" during remarks in Las Vegas?	No	2	0.085	$0.21	$0.04	+26.0%