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probability

0x74f1b8944c7b10f7239e3dda0de6b8ee42e816a8
PnL (30d)
+$33,659
last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$243
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+11.2%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
61%
2,192W / 1,406L · 330 open
Win Return (30d)
59%
2,298W / 1,627L · 3 open
Trades (30d)
3,928
across 290 markets · ~14 per market
EV / position
+$138.51
avg win $325 · loss $372
Profit Factor
2.39
$57,849 won / $24,190 lost
Reward / Risk
0.87
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$2,953
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $21,097 · all-time $12,452,852

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 60.9% 2,192W/1,406L 290 $304,817
⚽ Sports 14.5% 9W/53L 16 $8,238
🏛 Politics 4 $790

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

101 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 95,000 0.961 $91,247.50 $43,747.50 +92.1%
Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Clacton by-election? No 7,035 1.000 $7,031.01 $86.74 +1.2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 95,000 0.040 $3,752.50 $-43,747.50 -92.1%
Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.? Yes 2,171 0.708 $1,535.69 $-84.81 -5.2%
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 2,862 0.465 $1,329.44 $-218.90 -14.1%
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes 3,002 0.420 $1,260.83 $330.22 +35.5%
Will the US federal government take a stake in GlobalFoundries Inc.? Yes 1,420 0.875 $1,242.96 $20.74 +1.7%
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? Yes 3,133 0.375 $1,174.79 $548.23 +87.5%
Will Alexandra Eala win the 2026 Women’s US Open? No 895 0.954 $852.97 $19.68 +2.4%
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? No 631 0.930 $586.88 $149.57 +34.2%
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027? No 512 0.991 $507.17 $7.19 +1.4%
Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.? Yes 582 0.835 $485.74 $27.86 +6.1%
USMCA extended in 2026? No 607 0.750 $455.54 $30.43 +7.2%
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%? Yes 447 0.976 $435.62 $6.71 +1.6%
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? Yes 964 0.414 $399.55 $179.97 +82.0%
Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? No 516 0.675 $348.35 $69.77 +25.0%
Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Clacton by-election? No 334 0.993 $331.80 $-1.79 -0.5%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 1,551 0.213 $331.14 $-47.92 -12.6%
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? Yes 400 0.800 $320.20 $-67.80 -17.5%
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? No 561 0.570 $319.96 $0.24 +0.1%
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026? Yes 1,052 0.255 $268.19 $67.85 +33.9%
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? No 18,886 0.013 $254.97 $-1,043.45 -80.4%
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? Yes 3,500 0.070 $245.00 $-80.00 -24.6%
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI? No 298 0.790 $235.49 $124.76 +112.7%
Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? Yes 233 0.805 $187.83 $-36.95 -16.4%