PnL (30d)

+$1

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$15

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+0.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

83%

15W / 3L · 26 open

Win Return (30d)

48%

21W / 23L

Trades (30d)

44

across 12 markets · ~4 per market

EV / position

+$0.36

avg win $7 · loss $3

Profit Factor

1.19

$7 won / $6 lost

Reward / Risk

2.38

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	55.9% 185W/146L	254	$2,623
⚽ Sports	58.1% 50W/36L	69	$613
🏛 Politics	—	1	$57

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

21 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Yes	343	0.215	$73.81	$-26.50	-26.4%
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	Yes	192	0.240	$46.03	$-11.05	-19.4%
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?	Yes	450	0.045	$20.25	$-52.75	-72.3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	60	0.305	$18.30	$4.20	+29.8%
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?	Yes	147	0.120	$17.62	$-17.55	-49.9%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds	St. Louis Cardinals	22	0.440	$9.66	$0.66	+7.3%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	Yes	10	0.870	$8.70	$3.50	+67.3%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31?	Yes	20	0.405	$8.10	$2.50	+44.6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	20	0.355	$7.10	$-2.70	-27.6%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	43	0.155	$6.72	$-5.68	-45.8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Yes	351	0.018	$6.49	$-6.89	-51.5%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31?	Yes	74	0.055	$4.07	$-4.58	-52.9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	20	0.145	$2.90	$-4.30	-59.7%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees	Boston Red Sox	4	0.535	$2.21	$0.21	+10.6%
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?	Yes	30	0.065	$1.95	$-0.75	-27.8%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	10	0.170	$1.70	$-6.10	-78.2%
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	Yes	35	0.045	$1.57	$-3.02	-65.8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Yes	50	0.022	$1.12	$-3.22	-74.1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	4	0.260	$1.08	$0.08	+8.3%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-07-16?	Yes	3	0.365	$0.96	$-0.04	-3.9%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	4	0.080	$0.32	$-0.68	-68.0%