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Trader leaderboard/estoicc

estoicc

0x738a4849db23670996f14dff96a2bc6a8f885996
Scoped to Culture — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$85
Culture · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$3
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+6.6%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
65%
24W / 13L · 1 open
Win Return (30d)
66%
25W / 13L
Trades (30d)
38
across 10 markets · ~4 per market
EV / position
+$9.42
avg win $52 · loss $75
Profit Factor
1.38
$311 won / $226 lost
Reward / Risk
0.69
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$215
peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 54.3% 119W/100L 129 $16,070
💵 Economy 100.0% 1W/0L 7 $424
⚽ Sports 5 $484
🤖 Tech 0.0% 0W/1L 3 $107
🎬 Culture 0.0% 0W/8L 3 $241
🔬 Science 2 $27
🏛 Politics 0.0% 0W/7L 2 $213
🌤 Weather 1 $1
₿ Crypto 100.0% 1W/0L 1 $99

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

38 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? No 1,510 0.375 $566.12 $13.11 +2.4%
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? No 634 0.295 $187.09 $-53.91 -22.4%
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $6.5B by August 31? No 190 0.685 $130.15 $45.45 +53.7%
Will Rodri join Real Madrid? No 586 0.218 $128.01 $15.01 +13.3%
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by December 31? No 251 0.495 $124.45 $33.45 +36.8%
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by December 31? No 118 0.910 $107.55 $3.55 +3.4%
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $14B by December 31? No 184 0.480 $88.36 $-14.73 -14.3%
Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%? No 128 0.680 $86.88 $19.17 +28.3%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? Yes 395 0.220 $86.81 $-0.19 -0.2%
Will Brian Kemp announce a presidential run before 2028? No 107 0.735 $78.75 $3.75 +5.0%
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 158 0.462 $72.78 $-12.22 -14.4%
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $16.5B by August 31? No 137 0.530 $72.65 $-17.28 -19.2%
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $6B by December 31? No 163 0.435 $70.94 $16.56 +30.5%
Will Glenn Youngkin announce a presidential run before 2028? No 85 0.665 $56.52 $2.33 +4.3%
James Comey charges dropped by December 31? Yes 84 0.620 $52.08 $10.08 +24.0%
Jacob Elordi and Kendall Jenner engaged in 2026? No 88 0.585 $51.45 $-21.55 -29.5%
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2028? No 138 0.345 $47.42 $3.42 +7.8%
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026? Yes 122 0.370 $45.12 $-4.88 -9.8%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? No 114 0.390 $44.46 $-0.50 -1.1%
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026? Yes 194 0.220 $42.68 $9.78 +29.7%
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? No 100 0.395 $39.45 $-1.55 -3.8%
Anthropic vs OpenAI — greater valuation growth August 2026 OpenAI 100 0.365 $36.50 $0.50 +1.4%
Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? Yes 51 0.638 $32.56 $-5.32 -14.0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes 50 0.585 $29.25 $0.25 +0.9%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? Yes 119 0.238 $28.50 $4.50 +18.7%