PnL (30d)

−$134

Culture · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

$0

no open positions

ROI (30d)

-36.9%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

33%

1W / 2L

Win Return (30d)

33%

1W / 2L

Trades (30d)

3

across 2 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

−$66.91

avg win $1 · loss $135

Profit Factor

0.01

$1 won / $135 lost

Reward / Risk

0.01

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$135

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	47.6% 391W/431L	199	$159,436
🤖 Tech	71.8% 28W/11L	14	$10,098
💵 Economy	100.0% 12W/0L	8	$7,954
🏛 Politics	33.3% 1W/2L	6	$1,115
🎬 Culture	0.0% 0W/2L	1	$292

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

97 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	11,404	0.405	$4,618.77	$-1,107.40	-19.3%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	6,637	0.655	$4,347.52	$-25.28	-0.6%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Yes	10,748	0.355	$3,815.65	$787.37	+26.0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	19,527	0.135	$2,626.44	$-51.77	-1.9%
Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by September 30, 2026?	Yes	2,162	0.955	$2,064.97	$283.05	+15.9%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Yes	7,479	0.255	$1,907.18	$842.52	+79.1%
Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by December 31, 2026?	Yes	1,898	0.987	$1,872.38	$164.28	+9.6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	9,162	0.185	$1,695.00	$-511.46	-23.2%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	1,767	0.860	$1,519.61	$252.49	+19.9%
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	2,272	0.625	$1,420.09	$84.76	+6.3%
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	No	1,268	0.845	$1,071.59	$111.09	+11.6%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	10,656	0.093	$996.32	$418.14	+72.3%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	2,381	0.346	$824.78	$121.25	+17.2%
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	770	0.795	$612.10	$46.44	+8.2%
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?	Yes	3,437	0.175	$601.43	$-563.14	-48.4%
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	712	0.745	$530.16	$24.91	+4.9%
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	No	546	0.840	$458.99	$135.86	+42.0%
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	2,615	0.165	$431.49	$212.42	+97.0%
Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	591	0.694	$410.01	$281.09	+218.0%
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?	Yes	4,216	0.095	$398.45	$159.84	+67.0%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	2,068	0.175	$361.90	$-93.06	-20.5%
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	1,290	0.240	$309.48	$-209.24	-40.3%
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?	Yes	2,656	0.105	$278.90	$-298.82	-51.7%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	No	677	0.375	$253.90	$-7.39	-2.8%
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?	Yes	708	0.340	$240.82	$-214.78	-47.1%