PnL (30d)

+$2,289

Weather · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$14

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+4.8%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

79%

947W / 251L · 45 open

Win Return (30d)

79%

954W / 251L · 38 open

Trades (30d)

1,243

across 363 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

+$6.69

avg win $14 · loss $16

Profit Factor

2.67

$3,656 won / $1,368 lost

Reward / Risk

0.88

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$96

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	73.0% 3,098W/1,146L	1252	$232,171
🌤 Weather	83.7% 437W/85L	139	$26,289
₿ Crypto	0.0% 0W/4L	1	$5

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

19 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 5?	No	505	0.995	$502.52	$2.53	+0.5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 5?	Yes	280	0.920	$257.37	$4.62	+1.8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 5?	Yes	109	1.000	$108.64	$8.64	+8.6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on August 5?	Yes	103	1.000	$103.04	$3.04	+3.0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 5?	No	101	0.996	$100.56	$0.56	+0.6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 5?	Yes	102	0.965	$98.47	$-1.53	-1.5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 5?	No	84	1.000	$83.79	$1.63	+2.0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on August 5?	Yes	73	0.998	$72.57	$8.84	+13.9%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on August 5?	No	30	1.000	$29.98	$0.58	+2.0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 5?	Yes	24	1.000	$23.71	$13.71	+137.1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	42	0.175	$7.29	$2.29	+45.8%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 6?	Yes	201	0.020	$4.01	$-0.99	-19.7%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	125	0.013	$1.69	$-3.31	-66.2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 6?	Yes	1,577	0.001	$0.79	$-8.78	-91.8%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	3	0.185	$0.64	$-0.36	-36.2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on August 5?	No	100	0.003	$0.25	$-0.75	-75.0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on August 5?	No	100	0.001	$0.05	$-0.05	-50.0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 5?	No	100	0.001	$0.05	$-0.95	-95.0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 5?	Yes	50	0.001	$0.03	$-0.97	-97.5%