PnL (30d)

+$9

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$3

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+29.2%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

75%

3W / 1L · 1 open

Win Return (30d)

60%

3W / 2L

Trades (30d)

5

across 4 markets · ~1 per market

EV / position

+$2.92

avg win $9 · loss $10

Profit Factor

1.88

$19 won / $10 lost

Reward / Risk

0.94

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	73.2% 3,052W/1,117L	1218	$222,648
🌤 Weather	83.7% 435W/85L	130	$23,155
₿ Crypto	0.0% 0W/4L	1	$5

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

11 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 5?	Yes	616	0.998	$614.79	$4.80	+0.8%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on August 5?	Yes	330	1.000	$330.21	$3.42	+1.0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 5?	Yes	256	1.000	$255.72	$2.43	+1.0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 5?	No	188	1.000	$187.69	$9.49	+5.3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on August 5?	Yes	103	0.995	$102.52	$2.53	+2.5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 5?	Yes	24	0.510	$12.10	$2.10	+21.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	42	0.165	$6.87	$1.87	+37.5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	125	0.015	$1.94	$-3.06	-61.2%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	3	0.180	$0.62	$-0.38	-37.9%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 5?	No	100	0.001	$0.05	$-0.95	-95.0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on August 5?	Yes	74	0.001	$0.04	$-5.96	-99.4%